基于Maxent模型探讨河流对紫茎泽兰入侵的影响  

Discussion on Influence of River on Ageratina adenophora Invasion Based on Maxent Model

作　　者：杨洪 易文 瞿佳利 秦霞 谌利民[3] 周国兵 陈艳[1] YANG Hong;YI Wen;QU Jia-li;QIN Xia;CHEN Li-min;ZHOU Guo-bing;CHEN Yan(Ecological Security and Protection Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province,Mianyang Teachers' College,Mianyang 621000,China;College of Life Science & Biotechnology,Mianyang Teachers' College,Mianyang 621000,China;Tangjiahe National Nature Reserve Management Office in Sichuan Province,Guangyuan 628109,China;Sichuan Province Huili No.1 Middle School,Huili 615100,China)

机构地区：[1]绵阳师范学院生态安全与保护四川省重点实验室,四川绵阳621000 [2]绵阳师范学院生命科学与技术学院,四川绵阳621000 [3]四川省唐家河国家级自然保护区管理处,四川广元628109 [4]四川省会理第一中学,四川会理615100

出　　处：《杂草学报》2022年第1期8-19,共12页Journal of Weed Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(编号:31770254);四川省科技计划(编号:2017JY0046);绵阳师范学院研究生创新实践项目(编号:CX202115)。

摘　　要：紫茎泽兰是世界性恶性杂草,广泛分布于我国西南地区,早期的研究显示,河流和道路为其扩散提供了良好的通道,河流的作用大于道路,但扩散通道是否同时为紫茎泽兰的定植提供了有利条件尚不明晰。运用Maxent生态位模型预测紫茎泽兰在我国的潜在分布,结合地理信息系统(GIS)工具对其扩散路径(河流、道路)进行缓冲区分析。结果表明紫茎泽兰的潜在适生区面积达139.42×10^(4) km^(2),占国土总面积的14.52%,其中云南、贵州、四川、广西、西藏等省份分布最为集中,占全国高度适生区总面积的95.94%。紫茎泽兰的分布概率随与河流和道路距离的加大而降低,其中随距河流距离的增加适生区面积比的降低达到显著程度,河流的作用大于道路。模型预测显示,10月的平均降水量、等温性与3月平均气温对紫茎泽兰分布的影响最大,大型河流对温度和降水的调节作用,可能使河流不仅为紫茎泽兰的扩散提供良好的通道,同时为其种子萌发、幼苗生长提供有利条件,在紫茎泽兰的管理中应更重视对河流及周边区域的监测和防治。Ageratina adenophora is a worldwide malignant weed,which is widely distributed in Southwest China.Early studies showed that rivers and roads provided good channels for its diffusion,and the role of rivers is greater than that of roads,but it was unclear whether the diffusion channels provided favorable conditions for the colonizing of A.adenophora at the same time.We used Maxent niche model to predict the potential distribution of A.adenophora in China,and combined with GIS tools to analyze the buffer zone of its diffusion path(River and Road).The results showed that the potential suitable area of A.adenophora was 139.42×10^(4) km^(2),accounting for14.52%ofthetotal land area,of which Yunnan,Guizhou,Sichuan,Guangxi and Tibet were the most concentrated,accounting for 95.94%of the total area of highly suitable areas in China.The distribution probability of A.adenophora decreased with the increase of the distance from the river and road,and the suitable area ratio of decreased significantly with the increase of the distance from the river.Meanwhile,the role of the river was higher than that of the road.The model prediction showed that the average precipitation in October,isothermality and average temperature in March had the greatest impact on the distribution of A.adenophora.The regulation of large rivers on temperature and precipitation may not only provide a good channel for the diffusion of A.adenophora,but also provide favorable conditions for seed germination and seedling growth.In the management of A.adenophora,more attention should be paid to the monitoring and control of the river and its surrounding areas.

关 键 词：紫茎泽兰 Maxent模型 河流 潜在分布 扩散途径 

分 类 号：Q948[生物学—植物学]