零利率下限约束、异质性冲击与宏观政策选择  

Zero Interest Rate Lower Bound,Heterogeneous Impact and Macro Policy Choices

作　　者：郑家宝 林佳颖 Zheng Jiabao;Lin Jiaying(School of Economics,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,Wuhan 430073,China;School of Finance and Taxation,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,Wuhan 430073,China)

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学经济学院,湖北武汉430073 [2]中南财经政法大学财政税务学院,湖北武汉430073

出　　处：《中南财经政法大学研究生论丛》2022年第3期49-61,共13页Journal of the Postgraduates of Zhongnan University of Economics and Law

摘　　要：自“新冠肺炎”疫情发生以来,世界经济便遭遇巨大冲击,全球主要央行纷纷采取超低利率政策以应对潜在的经济衰退。持续走低的利率水平使得主要发达经济体均在不同程度上面临零利率下限约束的问题。在此背景下,本文构建了一个包含价格黏性的新凯恩斯模型,并在模型中对零利率下限约束进行建模,以此来对比考察在有无零利率约束的两种情形下宏观经济面对不同冲击时的波动差异。本文研究表明:在存在零利率下限的情形下,宏观经济波动性会加剧;同时,在面临不同类型的冲击时,各主要变量变动趋势存在明显的差异,呈现出“马太效应”现象。而零利率下限约束持续时间越长,经济波动程度就越剧烈,回归稳态花费的时间就更长。除此之外,本文还更进一步从长期均衡角度阐述了超低利率政策对经济结构和金融环境所带来的严重后果。Since the outbreak of COVID-19,the world economy has been hit by a huge shock.Major central banks around the world have adopted ultra-low interest rates to combat a potential recession.The continuous low level of interest rates makes major developed economies face the constraint of the zero lower bound of interest rates to varying degrees.In this context,this paper constructed a new Keynesian model including price viscosity and modeled the zero-interest rate floor constraint in the model,so as to compare and investigate the difference of macroeconomic fluctuations in the face of different shocks under the two situations with and without the zero interest rate constraint.The research shows that:the existence of zero lower bound of interest rate,macroeconomic volatility intensifies;at the same time,in the face of different types of shocks,the variation trend of each major variable is not the same,presenting the phenomenon of“Matthew effect”.The longer the constraint of the zero interest rate floor lasts,the more severe the economic fluctuations will be,and the longer it will take for the economy to return to steady state.In addition,this paper further expounds the serious consequences of ultra-low interest rate policy on economic structure and financial environment from a long-term perspective.

关 键 词：货币政策 零利率下限约束 DSGE模型 宏观政策 

分 类 号：F82[经济管理—财政学]