变化环境下非一致性极端水文事件的模拟及预测  

Simulation and Prediction of Nonstationary Extreme Hydrological Events Under Changed Conditions

作　　者：郝文龙 宋弘东 朱长军 赵方星 HAO Wen-long;SONG Hong-dong;ZHU Chang-jun;ZHAO Fang-xing(School of Energy and Environmental Engineering,Hebei University of Engineering,Handan 056038,China;State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;Baoding Bureau for Hydrology and Water Resources Survey of Hebei Province,Baoding 071000,China)

机构地区：[1]河北工程大学能源与环境工程学院,河北邯郸056038 [2]河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210098 [3]河北省保定水文勘测研究中心,河北保定071000

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2022年第6期58-62,共5页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：河北省自然科学基金(E2020402057);水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室“一带一路”水与可持续发展科技基金(2020491111);邯郸市科技局市级科技研发计划项目(19422303008-73)。

摘　　要：在气候变化与高强度人类活动综合作用下,洪水事件的时空格局发生了变异,洪水序列的不一致性导致流域洪水设计值难以界定,应对难度加大。为研究变化环境下洪水特征的非一致性,更好地估计洪水特征变化,以汉江流域为例,运用GAMLSS模型,以时间、气象因素(气温和降水)和人类活动(水库指标)为协变量,对汉江流域1951~2005年的最大洪峰流量序列进行非一致性频率分析,并基于CMIP5模式下两种典型浓度路径RCP2.6、RCP4.5情景下的输出数据,利用率定好的最优非一致模型模拟未来变化环境对汉江流域最大洪峰流量的影响。结果表明,构建的具有物理意义的非一致性模型可较好地模拟汉江流域洪水过程的非一致性特征,且该模型在一定程度上能适应环境变化;在RCP2.6、RCP4.5两种情景下,汉江流域的年总降水和年均气温在2006~2100年呈上升趋势;在不考虑汉江流域未来水利工程继续建设的情况下,气候变化在未来将会导致流域洪水风险进一步增加。The flood regimes have been changing due to the climate change and human activities. It is difficult to estimate the designed flood value for the inconsistency of flood series. In order to study the flood characteristics of inconsistency under changed conditions and better estimate the changes of flood characteristics, the Jianghan basin was taken as an example. The annual maximum streamflow series during 1951-2005 were used to analyze the nonstationarity in flood frequency. A generalized additive model for location, scale and shape(GAMLSS) was employed to characterize nonstationarities in annual maximum streamflow with time, climatic(precipitation and temperature) and anthropogenic(reservoir index) factors as covariates. Based on the outputs of CanESM2 used in CMIP5 under representative concentration pathways RCP2.6 and RCP4.5, the optimal nonstationary model was used to simulate the impact of the future climate scenario on the maximum flood peak discharge. The results indicate that the flood behavior can be better described by the nonstationary model with physically-based covariates;The total precipitation and average temperature in the HJR Basin are characterized by increasing trend over the period of 2006-2100 under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5;The flood risk is likely to increase in the future in the HJR Basin due to the climate change only without further change in hydrological engineering and flood management.

关 键 词：洪水频率分析 非一致性 气候变化 汉江流域 

分 类 号：TV123[水利工程—水文学及水资源]