基于I-MED模型的水电工程施工洪水频率分析  

Frequency Analysis of Construction Flood of Hydropower Engineering Based on I-MED Model

作　　者：张超 ZHANG Chao(Hydrochina Chengdu Engineering Corporation,Chengdu 610072,China)

机构地区：[1]中国电建集团成都勘测设计研究院有限公司,四川成都610072

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2022年第6期63-66,共4页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：中国电建集团成都勘测设计研究院有限公司科技项目(P46020)。

摘　　要：施工洪水的概率分布作为水电工程施工导流设计的理论基础,不应被固定为某一个模式,因此探索新的理论模型在施工洪水频率分析中的应用具有重要意义。先基于改进最大熵分布(I-MED)原理推导了施工洪水洪峰概率密度函数表达式,并提出通过求解多维非线性最优化问题获取概率密度函数的关键参数;然后通过与传统水文概率分布进行均方根误差和拟合优度值的评比来优选概率分布;最后对金沙江上游YBT高拱坝进行应用分析。结果表明,I-MED模型的分布拟合效果较传统洪峰流量拟合分布类型更优,比我国规范推荐的P-Ⅲ型分布略优;相比于P-Ⅲ型分布,其施工洪水设计值较小,导流工程设计具有一定的优化空间。研究结果为水电工程施工洪水频率分析提供了新的途径。As the theoretical basis for the construction diversion design of hydropower engineering, the probability distribution of construction flood should not be fixed as a certain model. Therefore, it is of great significance to explore the application of new theoretical model in construction flood frequency analysis. Firstly, based on the principle of improved maximum entropy distribution(I-MED), the expression of peak probability density function of construction flood was deduced, and the key parameters of probability density function were obtained by solving multi-dimensional nonlinear optimization problem. Then, the probability distribution was optimized by comparing the goodness of fit of R;and F;values with the traditional probability distribution. Finally, the application analysis of YBT high arch dam in the upper reaches of the Jinshajiang River was implemented. The results show that the distribution fitting effect of I-MED model is better than the traditional peak discharge fitting distribution type, and is slightly better than the P-Ⅲ distribution recommended by Chinese specifications;compared with P-Ⅲ distribution, the design value of construction flood is smaller, and there is room for optimization in the design of diversion works. This search can provide a new way for construction flood frequency analysis of hydropower engineering.

关 键 词：频率分析 施工洪水 改进最大熵分布(I-MED) 非线性最优化问题 拟合优度 

分 类 号：TV551.1[水利工程—水利水电工程]