气候治理与短期经济波动:气候变化奥肯定律  

Climate Governance and Business Cycles:Okun's Law of Climate Change

作　　者：吴施美 郑新业[2] 安子栋 WU Shimei;ZHENG Xinye;AN Zidong(Hunan University,Changsha,China;Renmin University of China,Beijing,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南大学经济与贸易学院,410079 [2]中国人民大学应用经济学院,100872

出　　处：《经济学动态》2022年第4期49-66,共18页Economic Perspectives

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(7210031035,72141308);湖南省自然科学基金项目(2021JJ40139)。

摘　　要：碳中和与充分就业是我国实现高质量发展所面临的重要任务,对此需要科学评估减排所带来的就业成本。本文将气候变化与经济周期结合,通过将碳排放和就业纳入统一的分析框架,实证估计了气候变化奥肯定律。研究发现,气候变化奥肯定律是存在的:碳排放每减少1%,就业人数会相应下降0.10%。进一步地,本文还对气候变化奥肯定律背后的影响机理进行了分析,发现经济发展水平、产业结构、外贸发展水平、外商投资和能源结构等都是重要的影响因素。本文发现发展水平越高,减排代价越低,减排政策的制定需要从时段、地区和产业等多个维度进行综合考虑。本文结论对未来碳中和任务的安排和实现经济发展公正转型具有一定的价值。Carbon neutrality and full employment are currently important tasks to achieve high-quality development in China.The trade-off of these two goals requires scientific evaluation of the employment costs brought about by emission reduction.This paper systematically studies the short-term fluctuation relationship between carbon emissions and employment by incorporating carbon emissions and employment into a unified analytical framework and estimates Okun's coefficient of climate change.We verified the existence of Okun's law of climate change in China.For every 1%reduction in emissions,the number of employees will drop by 0.10%.Furthermore,we also explored the mechanisms of Okun's law of climate change and found that the economic development level,industrial structure,foreign trade development level,FDI,and energy structure are all critical channels.In general,the higher the level of development is,the lower the cost of emission reduction.This paper suggests that the setting of emission reduction tasks needs to be comprehensively considered from multiple dimensions such as period,region,and industry.The conclusions of this paper are illuminating for the arrangement of future carbon-neutral tasks and the realization of fair transformation.

关 键 词：奥肯定律 碳中和 经济波动 气候变化 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济] P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]