我国PM_(2.5)和臭氧污染前体物排放源清单的现状与质量评估  

Status and quality evaluation of precursor emission inventories for PM_(2.5) and ozone in China

作　　者：黄志炯 沙青娥 朱曼妮 徐媛倩 余飞 刘慧琳 周文钦 张晓堂 张雪驰 饶思杰 姜帆 刘俊文 郑君瑜 Zhijiong Huang;Qing’e Sha;Manni Zhu;Yuanqian Xu;Fei Yu;Huilin Liu;Wenqin Zhou;Xiaotang Zhang;Xuechi Zhang;Sijie Rao;Fan Jiang;Junwen Liu;Junyu Zheng(Institute for Environmental and Climate Research,Jinan University,Guangzhou 511443,China;Guangdong-Hongkong-Macao Joint Laboratory of Collaborative Innovation for Environmental Quality,Jinan University,Guangzhou 511443,China;College of Environment and Energy,South China University of Technology,Guangzhou 511443,China)

机构地区：[1]暨南大学环境与气候研究院,广州511443 [2]暨南大学粤港澳环境质量协同创新联合实验室,广州511443 [3]华南理工大学环境与能源学院,广州511443

出　　处：《科学通报》2022年第18期1978-1994,共17页Chinese Science Bulletin

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2018YFC0213905,2018YFC0213904);国家自然科学基金(91744310,41805068)资助。

摘　　要：大气污染源排放清单是研究细颗粒物(PM_(2.5))和臭氧污染成因、制定PM_(2.5)和臭氧污染精准协同防控策略的重要基础数据.依托国家科技项目以及各级管理部门的强力推进,近年来我国PM_(2.5)和臭氧污染前体物排放清单研究与编制工作得到了迅速发展,积累了相对完善的本土前体物排放因子及PM_(2.5)和VOCs成分谱数据集,建立了较为系统的前体物排放清单表征方法和编制指南;交通、卫星等大数据和多种校验评估方法逐渐得到重视与应用,污染源和污染物种覆盖逐渐精细化,VOCs组分排放清单逐渐受到关注,各种尺度前体物排放清单的时空分辨率、时效性和可靠性有了显著提升,基本满足区域和城市开展PM_(2.5)与臭氧污染防控对排放源清单的需求.尽管如此,我国前体物排放清单依然存在不确定性较大、排放因子和成分谱数据建立缺乏规范化评估、组分清单校验薄弱、排放源清单编制质量评估方法缺失等不足.未来工作需要在排放因子和成分谱数据集规范化、排放清单校验与质量评估方法指南编制、近实时和短临预测排放清单方法学与业务化、不同类型排放清单建立方法与评估等方面继续深入.最后,提出了前体物排放清单编制质量评估方法的思路,为清单使用者评估前体物排放源清单编制质量、进一步规范前体物排放清单编制工作提供借鉴和参考.Developing precursor emission inventories is fundamental to deepen our understanding of air pollution and formulate refined co-control strategies for PM_(2.5) and ozone.Thanks to numerous research projects and the strong support by local governments,precursor emissions for PM_(2.5) and ozone have been rapidly advanced in China over the past two decades,achieving the following key progresses:(1)Feasible methodologies and guidelines or manuals for precursor emission developments have been established.These include nine technical guidelines for the development of emission inventories of air pollutant sources for PM_(10),PM_(2.5),volatile organic compounds(VOCs),and NH3 emissions as well as on-road mobile sources,non-road mobile sources,biomass combustion sources,particulate matter(PM)from dust fugitive sources,and residential coal combustion sources published in 2014–2016;the technical manual for Urban Air Pollutant Emission Inventory Development and workbook for the Study on Air Pollution Prevention and Control in“2+26”Cities released in 2017.(2)Comprehensive datasets of local emission factors and speciated profiles of PM and VOCs have been established to cover major anthropogenic emission sources and reduce the uncertainty in emission estimation.In recent years,emission factors for isoprene,nitrous acid(HONO),chlorine(Cl),and other key precursor species of PM_(2.5) and ozone formation have also been developed.The most recent VOC profile datasets contain 400 to 500 VOC species from nearly 100 different sources.The less-studied oxygenated VOC(OVOC)species were also included.(3)With the progress in local emission factors,speciated profiles,and activity data,emission sources and species involved in emission inventories are more comprehensive and inclusive.For instance,the number of VOC species has increased by about 140 in China and by about 280 in the Pearl River Delta(PRD)region.The inclusion of more VOC species boosts the ozone formation potential in PRD by 30%.Emissions of semi-volatile and intermediate VOCs

关 键 词：PM_(2.5)和臭氧 前体物排放清单 挥发性有机物组分清单 校验与评估 不确定性分析 

分 类 号：X51[环境科学与工程—环境工程] X823