Estimating the Size of an Open Population with Massive Datasets Based on a Generalized Varying-Coefficient Model  

作　　者：LI Haoqi LI Yuan 

机构地区：[1]School of Economics and Statistics,Guangzhou University,Guangzhou 510006,China [2]School of Mathematics and Statistics,Yangtze Normal University,Chongqing 408100,China

出　　处：《Journal of Systems Science & Complexity》2022年第3期1116-1136,共21页系统科学与复杂性学报（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.11731015,11571148;the Natural Science Foundation of Chongqing under Grant No.cstc2019jcyj-msxm X0709;the Science and Technology Research Program of Chongqing Municipal Education Commission under Grant No.KJQN201901436。

摘　　要：A generalized varying-coefficient model is proposed to estimate a population size at a specific time from multiple lists of an open population.The research datasets have millions of records with a very long time span(38 years),bringing challenges to calculations.The authors develop a regularization iterative algorithm to overcome this difficulty.The asymptotic distribution of the proposed estimators is derived.Simulation studies show that the procedure works well.The method is applied to estimate the number of drug abusers in Hong Kong,China over the period 1977–2014.

关 键 词：Drug abusers generalized varying-coefficient multiple-list open population 

分 类 号：O212.1[理学—概率论与数理统计] D669.8[理学—数学]