义乌·中国小商品指数与中国宏观经济指数的关系研究  

Research on the Relationship between the Yiwu China Commodity Index and China Macroeconomic Index

作　　者：丁仙 易荣华 费越 张玉蓉 DING Xian;YI Ronghua;FEI Yue;ZHANG Yurong(School of Economics and Management,China Jiliang University Hangzhou,Zhejiang 310018;College of Modern Science and Technology,China Jiliang University Hangzhou,Zhejiang 310018)

机构地区：[1]中国计量大学经济与管理学院,浙江杭州310018 [2]中国计量大学现代科技学院,浙江杭州310018

出　　处：《中国商论》2022年第14期1-8,共8页China Journal of Commerce

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“股票市场国际板的效应与风险研究”(71871205)。

摘　　要：本文探究义乌·中国小商品指数与中国宏观经济指数之间的关系,选取义乌小商品月价格指数、义乌小商品月景气指数、居民消费价格指数、消费者信心指数和宏观经济景气指数作为研究对象,构建VAR模型,并运用最小二乘回归方法估计变量间的领先滞后关系。结果表明:义乌小商品月价格指数对居民消费价格指数和消费者信心指数短期内有正向影响,长期来看有负向影响,而且具有预测作用;义乌小商品月景气指数对宏观先行合成指数和宏观滞后合成指数分别产生负向和正向影响,而且具有预测作用。This article explores the relationship between the Yiwu China Commodity Index and China Macroeconomic Index,selects Yiwu small commodity monthly price index,Yiwu small commodity monthly prosperity index,consumer price index(CPI),consumer confidence index(CCI)and macroeconomic prosperity index as the research objects,constructs the VAR model,and uses the least squares regression method to estimate the lead-lag relationship among variables.The results show that Yiwu small commodity monthly prosperity index has a positive effect on the CPI and CCI in the short term,but a negative effect on these two indexes in the long run and plays a predictive role.The Yiwu small commodity monthly prosperity index has negative and positive effects on the macro leading composite index and macro lagging composite index,respectively,and has a predictive effect.

关 键 词：义乌·中国小商品指数 中国宏观经济指数 VAR模型 领先滞后关系 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济]