产业结构升级对就业的空间效应实证研究  

An Empirical Study of Spatial Effect of Industrial Structure Upgrading on Employment

作　　者：曹文彬 叶晓权 CAO Wen-bin;YE Xiao-quan(Jiangnan University,Wuxi 214122,China)

机构地区：[1]江南大学商学院,江苏无锡214122

出　　处：《经济论坛》2022年第7期58-66,共9页Economic Forum

基　　金：国家社会科学基金资助项目“产业结构转型升级的就业效应研究”(16BTJ006)。

摘　　要：高质量发展背景下,就业结构如何与产业结构相协调是亟待解决的问题,前提是厘清两者关系。结合2000—2019年全国30个省份面板数据,利用固定效应回归和空间杜宾回归,探究产业结构升级对就业的影响。结果表明:产业结构升级对就业总量轻微正影响,对第一产业就业滞后一期显著负影响;对第二产业就业、第三产业就业和就业结构存在当期显著正影响、滞后三期显著正影响和滞后一期显著正影响;就业数量存在正的空间相关性,产业结构升级对第一、三产业就业和就业结构存在空间溢出效应。因此,我国应更注重结构性失业问题,进一步加强产业结构优化升级、加大人力资本投资,结合区域异质性和相关性进行科学决策,达到产—就良性互动。Under the background of high-quality development,how to coordinate employment structure with industrial structure is an urgent problem to be solved.The premise is to clarify the correlation between the two.Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2000 to 2019,this paper uses fixed effect regression and spatial Dubin regression to explore the impact of industrial structure upgrading on employment.The results show that industrial structure upgrading has a slight positive impact on total employment,a lag one-phase significant negative impact on the primary industry,a current-phase significant positive impact on the secondary industry,a lag three-phases significant positive impact on the tertiary industry and a lag one-phase significant positive impact on employment structure;the number of employment has a positive spatial correlation,and the industrial structure upgrading has a spatial spillover effect on the employment of the primary and tertiary industries and employment structure.Therefore,China should pay more attention to structural unemployment,further strengthen the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure,increase human capital investment,and make scientific decisions based on regional heterogeneity and correlation,so as to achieve a positive interaction between industry and employment.

关 键 词：产业结构升级 就业数量 就业结构 空间计量模型 

分 类 号：F241.4[经济管理—劳动经济]