“一带一路”倡议对中国与其重要贸易伙伴国的经济效应研究  

Research on the Economic Effects of“The Belt and Road”Initiative on China and Its Important Trade Partners

作　　者：魏玮 张兵[2] WEI Wei;ZHANG Bing(Nankai University School of Economics,Tianjin 300071,China)

机构地区：[1]南开大学经济学院,天津300071 [2]南开大学经济学院国际经济贸易系,天津300071

出　　处：《经济论坛》2022年第7期67-77,共11页Economic Forum

基　　金：国家社科基金项目“G20成员经济周期的协动性及其影响效应研究”(17BGJ016);中国留学基金委员会的资助(学号:202006200113)。

摘　　要：鉴于出口与进口对经济增长的影响机制不同,选择HM指数考察中国与其重要的五个“一带一路”倡议伙伴国的贸易依赖程度,同时选择地理位置相似却没有加入“一带一路”倡议的日本作为对比,研究“一带一路”倡议对参与国产生的经济效应。研究发现“一带一路”倡议增强了中国对“一带一路”伙伴国的依赖程度,而中日HM指数持续下降。通过构建马尔科夫区制转移模型,重点比较了自2013年正式提出“一带一路”倡议后,中韩贸易周期协动性与中日贸易周期协动性的变动,发现“一带一路”倡议提出至今韩国均处于受中国贸易周期影响的区制,对日本贸易周期并未产生明显影响。In view of the different influential mechanisms of export and import on economic growth,this paper selects HM index to analyze the trade reliance degree between China and its five important trade partners of“the Belt and Road”initiative,and chooses Japan,which has similar geographical location but does not join“the Belt and Road”initiative,as a comparison to study the economic effects of“the Belt and Road”initiative on the participating countries.The study finds that“the Belt and Road”initiative has strengthened China’s trade reliance on the partner countries of“the Belt and Road”initiative,and however,the HM index between China and Japan has been on the decline.By constructing the Markov regime-switching model,this paper focuses on comparing the Sino-Korean co-movement in the trade cycle with the Sino-Japanese co-movement in the trade cycle since the start-up of“the Belt and Road”initiative in 2013,and finds that South Korea has been under the influence by the Chinese trade cycle,and the Japanese trade cycle has not been affected obviously.

关 键 词：“一带一路”倡议 HM指数 马尔科夫区制转移模型 贸易周期协动性 

分 类 号：F114[经济管理—国际贸易] F753[经济管理—世界经济]