水稻白叶枯病发病率和病情指数关系模型的建立与应用  

Establishment and application of the regression model between incidence and disease index of rice bacterial blight

作　　者：谢春生 陈红春 袁传 林汉龙 陈观浩 Xie Chunsheng;Chen Hongchun;Yuan Chuan;Lin Hanlong;Chen Guanhao(Pingding Agricultural Technology Extension Station,Huazhou Guangdong 525135,China;Guanqiao Agricultural Technology Extension Station,Huazhou Guangdong 525145,China;Daqiao Agricultural Technology Extension Station,Huazhou Guangdong 525132,China;Forecast Station of Plant Disease and Insect Pests of Huazhou,Huazhou Guangdong 525100,China)

机构地区：[1]广东省化州市平定镇农业技术推广站,广东化州525135 [2]广东省化州市官桥镇农业技术推广站,广东化州525145 [3]广东省化州市笪桥镇农业技术推广站,广东化州525132 [4]广东省化州市病虫测报站,广东化州525100

出　　处：《中国植保导刊》2022年第5期30-33,共4页China Plant Protection

基　　金：广东省科技计划项目(2013B020416002)。

摘　　要：明确水稻白叶枯病发病率与病情指数间的关系,为田间水稻白叶枯病病情指数的调查提供简便、快捷的估值方法,对2015—2017年广东化州水稻白叶枯病发病率和病情指数开展田间调查,应用线性函数、指数函数、幂函数、对数函数、二次函数和三次函数6种不同模型进行曲线拟合。结果表明,水稻白叶枯病发病率和病情指数的关系可用幂函数y=0.160 6x^(1264.8)(R^(2)=0.966 7,p<0.01)描述,应用2019—2020年实测数据验证发现该模型估测精度达91.7%。生产中可以应用该模型对田间水稻白叶枯病病情指数进行快速、简化运算。To clarify the relationship between the incide nce and disease index of rice bacterial blight, establish a correlation model, and provide a simplified estimation method for the investigation of rice bacterial blight disease index in the field, we investigated the incidence and disease index of rice bacterial blight in Huazhou, Guangdong Province from2015 to 2017. Linear, exponential, power, logarithmic, quadratic, and cubic functions were adopted to describe the numerical relationship between the incidence(x) and disease index(y). The results showed that the I-S relationship of rice bacterial blight could be described by a power function equation, y=0.160 6x^(1264.8)(R^(2)=0.966 7,p<0.01). The field data validation results showed that the power function model had a high prediction accuracy. This model can be used to monitor and forecast the occurrence and damage of rice bacterial blight in a fast and easy way in the field.

关 键 词：水稻白叶枯病 发病率 病情指数 I-S关系 数学模型 

分 类 号：S431.3[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]