Climate change,thermal niches,extinction risk and maternal-effect rescue of toad-headed lizards,Phrynocephalus,in thermal extremes of the Arabian Peninsula to the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau  

作　　者：Barry SINERVO Donald B.MILES Yayong WU Fausto R.MÉNDEZ-DE LA CRUZ Sebastian KIRCHHOF Yin QI 

机构地区：[1]The Institute for the Study of the Ecological and Evolutionary Climate Impacts,University of California,and Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology,University of California,Santa Cruz,California,USA [2]Department of Biological Sciences,Ohio University,Athens,Ohio,USA [3]Chengdu Institute of Biology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Chengdu,Sichuan,China [4]Laboratory of Herpetology,Institute of Biology,Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México,Mexico City,Mexico [5]Museum of Natural History,Leibniz-Institute for Evolution and Biodiversity Science,and Berlin-Brandenburg Institute of Advanced Biodiversity Research(BBIB),Berlin,Germany

出　　处：《Integrative Zoology》2018年第4期450-470,共21页整合动物学（英文版）

基　　金：BS and DBM were supported by NSF Macrosystems(Grant EF-1241848);FRM was supported by PAPIIT UNAM 210116;YQ was supported by China’s Biodiversity Observation Network(Sino-BON).

摘　　要：Determining the susceptibility of species to changing thermal niches is a major goal for biologists.In this paper we develop an eco-physiological model of extinction risk under climate change premised on behavioral thermoregulation.Our method downscales operative environmental temperatures,which restrict hours of activity of lizards,hr,for present-day climate(1975)and future climate scenarios(2070).We apply our model using occurrence records of 20 Phrynocephalus lizards(or taxa in species complexes)drawn from literature and museum records.Our analysis is phylogenetically informed,because some clades may be more sensitive to rising temperatures.The limits for computed hr predict local extirpations among Phrynocephalus lizards at continental scales and delineate upper boundaries of thermal niches as defined by Extreme Value Distributions.Under the 8.5 Representative Concentration Pathway scenario,we predict extirpation of 64%of local populations by 2070 across 20 Phrynocephalus species,and 12 are at high risk of total extinction due to thermal limits being exceeded.In tandem with global strategies of lower CO_(2) emissions,we propose regional strategies for establishing new national parks to protect extinction-prone taxa by preserving high-elevation climate refugia within existing sites of species occurrence.We propose that evolved acclimatization–maternal plasticity–may ameliorate risk,but is poorly studied.Previous studies revealed that adaptive maternal plasticity by thermoregulating gravid females alter progeny thermal preferences by±1℃.We describe plasticity studies for extinction-prone species that could assess whether they might be buffered from climate warming–a self-rescue.We discuss an epigenetic framework for studying such maternal-effect evolution.

关 键 词：climate change ECO-PHYSIOLOGY extinction model maternal effect LIZARDS 

分 类 号：TG1[金属学及工艺—金属学]