中国社会的犯罪下降现象及其理解  

Explaining the Crime Drop in China

作　　者：王瑞山[1] WANG Ruishan

机构地区：[1]华东政法大学刑事法学院,上海201620

出　　处：《公安学研究》2022年第2期25-46,123,共23页Journal of Public Security Science

摘　　要：犯罪下降已成为国际犯罪学领域一个重要话题。考察1981—2019年中国刑事案件发案率,强奸犯罪自20世纪90年代初以来整体呈下降趋势,中间略有波动;杀人犯罪和抢劫犯罪自21世纪初以来呈现持续、稳定的下降趋势;伤害犯罪、盗窃机动车犯罪在2010年开始出现持续、稳定的下降趋势;总体犯罪自2016年开始下降,截至2019年底仍为下降趋势,但时间较短。对于犯罪下降的解释分别存在实证主义和历史制度主义两种方法论立场,形成了多种假设。这些假设的理论依据可以归属于传统犯罪学和环境犯罪学两种不同视角,传统犯罪学聚焦犯罪人的犯罪性,而环境犯罪学聚焦犯罪行为的发生情境。总体而言,犯罪是有犯罪倾向或动机的人在一定机会条件或特定刺激下实施的行为。当前,我国社会福利的增加、人口结构变化(青少年减少和老年人增多)、流动人口政策的优化等因素减少了犯罪人,公共监控和社会管理的加强、警务的改善、严打暴力犯罪的策略等因素减少了犯罪机会,经济发展既缓解了因贫困导致的社会紧张,也为社会福利和犯罪管控奠定物质基础,最终导致犯罪下降。Crime drop has become an important topic in the field of criminology.An analysis of the incidence of criminal cases in China from 1981 to 2019 shows that violent crimes such as homicide and robbery have shown a constantly downward trend since the beginning of the 21stcentury,and that the crimes of infringement and motor vehicle theft have been continuously declining since 2010.The overall incidence of crime has been declining since 2016.Various hypotheses of the crime drop based on positivism and historical institutionalism can be categorized into traditional criminology and environmental criminology.Traditional criminology focuses on the criminality of criminals,while environmental criminology pays more attention to the opportunities of criminal behavior.In China,some factors such as improved social welfare,demographic change(fewer teenagers and more senior people)and optimized policy for mobile population contribute to reducing potential criminals;factors like intensified public surveillance and social management,ameliorated policing practices and violent crime combatting strategies help to reduce crime opportunities;economic development alleviates the social tensions caused by poverty,providing support for social welfare and crime control.All the positive elements contribute to the crime drop in China.

关 键 词：犯罪趋势 犯罪下降 犯罪黑数 犯罪预防 社会治理 

分 类 号：D917[政治法律—法学]