人口结构、生育政策与家庭消费  

Population Structure,Fertility Policy and Household Consumption

作　　者：李胜旗[1] 徐玟龙 LI Sheng-qi;XU Wen-long(School of Finance,Capital University of Economics and Business,Beijing 100070,China)

机构地区：[1]首都经济贸易大学金融学院,北京100070

出　　处：《西北人口》2022年第4期15-31,共17页Northwest Population Journal

基　　金：北京市社科基金项目“新《外商投资法》下北京CBD扩大开放路径与营商环境优化研究”(项目批号:19JDYJB025)。

摘　　要：现阶段我国人口老龄化形势严峻,人口结构优化可以促进消费拉动内需,实现经济稳定增长。文章利用2013~2017年CHFS数据,对人口结构如何影响家庭消费进行实证分析,结果表明,人口老龄化会抑制家庭消费,年轻化会提高家庭消费、促进家庭消费结构优化升级,贫困户、农村地区与低收入家庭的老龄化问题严峻,对消费抑制明显。机制分析表明数字经济以其普惠便利性和“心理账户”效应能有效提振消费,保险发挥压舱石作用,缓冲老龄化对家庭消费的冲击。进一步的研究中,文章将我国生育政策调整作为一个准自然实验,利用三重差分模型(DDD)分析人口结构、生育政策和家庭消费之间内在联系,生育政策能够促进家庭消费且在老龄化家庭中作用更为显著。因此要贯彻我国“三孩”政策,将整体推进与精准发力相结合,实现人口长期均衡发展,同时,要建立长效社保机制,发展数字经济,提高家庭经济发展动力促进家庭消费。At this stage,China’s population aging situation is severe.The optimization of population structure can promote consumption to drive domestic demand,achieve stable economic growth.Using the CHFS data from 2013 to 2017,this paper makes an empirical analysis on how the population structure affects household consumption.The results show that population aging will inhibit household consumption,the younger population will increase household consumption,promote the optimization and upgrading of household consumption structure.The aging problem of poor households,rural areas and low-income families is serious,and the consumption inhibition is obvious.Mechanism analysis shows that digital economy can effectively boost consumption with its inclusive convenience and“psychological account”effect,and insurance plays a ballast role to cushion the impact of aging on household consumption.In further research,this paper takes China’s fertility policy adjustment as a quasi-natural experiment,and uses the triple difference model(DDD)to analyze the internal relationship between population structure,fertility policy and family consumption.The fertility policy can promote family consumption and plays a more significant role in aging families.Therefore,it is necessary to implement China’s“three-child”policy,combine the overall promotion with accurate force,and achieve the long-term balanced development of the population.At the same time,we should establish a long-term social security mechanism,develop the digital economy,improve the driving force of family economic development and promote family consumption.

关 键 词：人口结构 家庭消费 数字经济 社会保障 生育政策 

分 类 号：C92-05[社会学—人口学]