人口老龄化与中国居民收入差距:影响与机制分析——基于共同富裕背景下再分配视域的实证研究  

Population Aging and Income Gap in China:Impact and Mechanism Analysis——Empirical Research based on the Perspective of Redistribution in the Context of Common Prosperity

作　　者：宋佳莹 高传胜[1] SONG Jia-ying;GAO Chuan-sheng(School of Government,Nanjing University,Nanjing Jiangsu,210023,China)

机构地区：[1]南京大学政府管理学院,南京210023

出　　处：《西北人口》2022年第4期104-117,共14页Northwest Population Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目“全球价值链视角下的国内区域分工与市场一体化研究”(71733003);教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目“包容性发展与治理视角下非户籍人口市民化的突破路径研究”(19YJAZH018);江苏省社会科学基金重大项目“江苏实施积极应对人口老龄化战略与基于老龄服务业高质量发展的对策研究”(21ZD010)。

摘　　要：缩小居民收入差距是实现共同富裕的关键所在。持续加剧的人口老龄化,由于改变了劳动力与抚养者之间的比例关系,势必对居民收入差距产生影响。理论与实证分析均表明,人口老龄化扩大了居民收入差距,且存在区域异质性:空间区域异质性,表现为人口老龄化对收入差距的扩大效应呈现东、中、西逐渐扩大趋势;不同经济发展水平的区域异质性,在经济发达地区,人口老龄化对收入差距的影响并不显著,但在经济欠发达地区,老龄化显著扩大居民收入差距。经济增长在其中扮演了重要的“推力”作用,在人口老龄化影响收入差距过程中产生正向调节效应,加剧了不平等。具有再分配功能的社会保障支出对居民收入差距并未起到“烫平”作用,反而作为中介变量在人口老龄化负面影响居民收入差距的过程中起到部分中介效应,产生了“逆向分配”的结果;同时,社会保障支出对居民收入差距的“逆向”解释力随经济持续增长而扩大,阻碍了共同富裕的进程。Narrowing the income gap of residents is the key to achieving common prosperity.The ever-increasing aging of the population will inevitably have an impact on the income gap of residents due to changing the proportional relationship between the labor force and the dependants.Both theoretical and empirical analysis show that population aging has widened the income gap between residents.And there is regional heterogeneity:the spatial and regional heterogeneity is manifested in that the expanding effect of population aging on the income gap is gradually expanding in the east,middle and west.The regional heterogeneity of different levels of economic development,in economically developed regions,the impact of population aging on income gap is not significant.However,in economically underdeveloped areas,aging has significantly widened the income gap between residents.Economic growth has played an important"push"role in it.In the process of population aging affecting income disparity,there is a positive moderating effect,which exacerbates inequality.Social security expenditures with a redistribution function have not played a role in"flattening"the income gap of residents.On the contrary,as an intermediary variable,it plays a partial intermediary effect in the process of population aging negatively affecting the income gap of residents,resulting in the result of“reverse distribution”.At the same time,the“reverse”explanatory power of social security expenditures on the income gap of residents has expanded with the continuous economic growth,hindering the process of common prosperity.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 居民收入差距 经济增长 社会保障支出 有调节的中介效应 

分 类 号：F061.4[经济管理—政治经济学]