FTA深度一体化对贸易增加值的影响--基于中国签订贸易协定的实证研究  

The Impact of Deep Integration of FTA on Value-Added in Trade:An Empirical Study Based on the Trade Agreements Signed by China

作　　者：彭水军[1,2] 曾勇 PENG Shui-jun;ZENG Yong(Center for Macroeconomic Research,Xiamen University,Xiamen 361005,Fujian;The School of Economics,Xiamen University,Xiamen 361005,Fujian)

机构地区：[1]厦门大学宏观经济研究中心,福建厦门361005 [2]厦门大学经济学院,福建厦门361005

出　　处：《厦门大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2022年第4期27-41,共15页Journal of Xiamen University(A Bimonthly for Studies in Arts & Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“气候变化与国际贸易问题研究”(13&ZD167)。

摘　　要：FTA深度一体化能否有效促进成员国的价值链关联及贸易利得的提升,备受学界和政策制定者的关注。基于结构引力模型和中国签订贸易协定的相关数据,可实证研究FTA深度一体化对贸易增加值的影响。结果表明:(1)FTA深度一体化整体上显著促进了成员国出口增加值的提升,且对成员国出口的国内增加值的正向促进作用大于对出口的国外增加值的影响,意味着FTA的深度一体化有利于提升成员国的实际贸易利益。(2)区分中间出口和最终出口后发现,不同的深度指数对中间出口的国内增加值和国外增加值均有显著的促进效应,而对最终出口的国内增加值和国外增加值的影响都不显著。这表明,FTA深度一体化主要是通过加强成员国之间的价值链贸易关联来促进贸易增加值和提升贸易利益。进一步区分货物与服务贸易来看,FTA深度一体化对货物中间出口增加值的促进作用显著强于服务。(3)从衡量FTA深度一体化的不同深度指数来看,具有法律可执行性且拥有争端解决机制的FTA实际总深度指数对贸易增加值的促进作用明显强于表面总深度指数;而代表贸易议题未来发展趋势的WTO-X指数相比于代表传统议题的WTO+指数对贸易增加值具有更大的促进作用。Using structural gravity model,we empirically analyze the promotion effect of FTA deep integration on value-added in trade based on the relevant data of the trade agreements signed by China.The results show that:(1)on the whole,the deep integration of FTA significantly enhances the value-added of member countries’exports,and the positive effect on the domestic value-added of member countries’exports is greater than that on the foreign value-added of exports,indicating that the deep integration of FTA is conducive to improving the real trade interests of member countries.(2)after distinguishing between intermediate exports and final exports,it is found that different depth indexes all have a positive effect on the domestic and foreign value-added of intermediate exports,but have no significant effect on the domestic and foreign value-added of final exports,indicating that the deep integration of FTA mainly enhances value-added in trade and trade interests by strengthening the value chain trade association among member countries;further distinguishing the trade of goods and services,the deep integration of FTA enhances the value-added of intermediate exports of goods more significantly than that of services.(3)from the perspective of different depth indexes to measure the deep integration of FTA,the actual total depth index of FTA with legal enforceability and dispute settlement mechanism has a stronger enhancing effect on value-added in trade than the superficial total depth index;and the WTO-X index,which represents the future development trend of trade issues,has a greater role in enhancing the value-added in trade than the WTO+index,which represents traditional issues.After a series of robustness tests,the results remain robust.

关 键 词：FTA深度一体化 贸易增加值 结构引力模型 PPML估计 

分 类 号：F744[经济管理—国际贸易]