A New Coronavirus Estimation Global Score for Predicting Mortality During Hospitalization in Patients with COVID-19  

作　　者：Hesong Zeng Xingwei He Wanjun Liu Jing Kan Liqun He Jinhe Zhao Cynthia Chen Junjie Zhang Shaoliang Chen 

机构地区：[1]Division of Cardiology,Tongji Hospital,Tongji Medical College,Huazhong University of Science&Technology,Wuhan,Hubei 430030,China [2]Division of Cardiology,Nanjing First Hospital,Nanjing Medical University,Nanjing,Jiangsu 210006,China [3]Division of Cardiology,Wuhan First Hospital,Wuhan,Hubei 430022,China [4]Division of Cardiology,Tianyou Hospital affiliated to Wuhan University of Science&Technology,Wuhan,Hubei 430064,China [5]Mailman School of Public Health,Columbia University,New York,New York 10027,USA [6]College of Pharmacy,Nanjing Medical University,Nanjing,Jiangsu 210002,China.

出　　处：《Cardiology Discovery》2022年第2期69-76,共8页心血管病探索（英文）

基　　金：supported by Nanjing Outstanding Medical Project(NOMP)-2019-0001.

摘　　要：Objective:Coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)exists as a pandemic.Mortality during hospitalization is multifactorial,and there is urgent need for a risk stratification model to predict in-hospital death among COVID-19 patients.Here we aimed to construct a risk score system for early identification of COVID-19 patients at high probability of dying during in-hospital treatment.Methods:In this retrospective analysis,a total of 821 confirmed COVID-19 patients from 3 centers were assigned to developmental(n=411,between January 14,2020 and February 11,2020)and validation(n=410,between February 14,2020 and March 13,2020)groups.Based on demographic,symptomatic,and laboratory variables,a new Coronavirus estimation global(CORE-G)score for prediction of in-hospital death was established from the developmental group,and its performance was then evaluated in the validation group.Results:The CORE-G score consisted of 18 variables(5 demographics,2 symptoms,and 11 laboratory measurements)with a sum of 69.5 points.Goodness-of-fit tests indicated that the model performed well in the developmental group(H=3.210,P=0.880),and it was well validated in the validation group(H=6.948,P=0.542).The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves were 0.955 in the developmental group(sensitivity,94.1%;specificity,83.4%)and 0.937 in the validation group(sensitivity,87.2%;specificity,84.2%).The mortality rate was not significantly different between the developmental(n=85,20.7%)and validation(n=94,22.9%,P=0.608)groups.Conclusions:The CORE-G score provides an estimate of the risk of in-hospital death.This is the first step toward the clinical use of the CORE-G score for predicting outcome in COVID-19 patients.

关 键 词：Hospital mortality Coronavirus estimation global score COVID-19 GOODNESS-OF-FIT Receiver operating characteristics Risk stratification 

分 类 号：R37[医药卫生—病原生物学]