华安汰内温泉水化学及水氡映震特征与预测效能检验评估  

Hydrochemistry and Radon Reflection Characteristics of Tainei HotSpring Water in Hua'an and Prediction Efficiency Test and Evaluation

作　　者：秦双龙[1] 洪旭瑜[1] 洪明泉 QIN Shuanglong;HONG Xuyu;HONG Mingquan(Fujian Earthquake Agency,Fuzhou 35003,China)

机构地区：[1]福建省地震局,福州350003

出　　处：《华南地震》2022年第2期25-32,共8页South China Journal of Seismology

基　　金：中国地震局地震科技星火计划攻关项目(XH21013);中国地震局震情跟踪定向工作任务(2021020301);国家重点研发计划专题(2019YCF1509404-4);福建省地震局基金项目(SF202008)联合资助

摘　　要：在对福建华安汰内温泉水文地球化学特征分析的基础上,以1987年以来该温泉的水氡观测资料为研究对象,分析其变化形态和影响因素,结合期间台湾地区发生的多次7级以上强震,研究水氡的异常变化特征,并利用Molchan图表法对其预测效能进行检验和评估。结果显示:该温泉水化学类型为HCO_(3)∙SO_(4)-Na,表明经历了较长的补给路径且具有一定的深层水信息;该温泉水氡呈现夏高冬低的年变动态,与观测水位和气温呈正相关性;在台湾多次7级以上强震前水氡呈现明显的趋势高值异常,地震多发生在水氡高值异常结束或转折时;Molchan图表法检验结果显示该温泉水氡异常与台湾7级以上强震具有较好的相关性,地震主要发生在在异常出现后180 d内,以中短期异常特征为主。通过对华安汰内温泉水氡的异常特征及预测效能评估研究,有助于对台湾及其周围的震情跟踪分析。Based on the analysis of hydrogeochemical characteristics of theTainei hot spring in Hua'an,Fujian Province,taking the radon observation data of the hot spring since 1987 as the research object,this paper analyzes its variation patterns and influencing factors,studies the abnormal variation characteristics of water radon combining with the multiple strong earthquakes with M≥7.0 in Taiwan during the period,and uses the Molchan chart method to test and evaluate its prediction efficiency.The results show that:the hydrochemical type of Hua'an hot spring is HCO_(3)∙SO_(4)-Na,indicating that it has experienced a long recharge path and has certain deep water information;radon in Hua'an hot spring water shows an annual variation of high in summer and low in winter,which is positively correlated with the observed water level and temperature;before several strong earthquakes with M≥7.0 in Taiwan,the radon in Hua'an hot spring water shows an obvious trend of high value anomaly,and earthquakes mostly occur at the end or turning point of high value anomaly of radon in water;the test results of Molchan chart method show that the radon anomaly in Hua'an hot spring water has a good correlation with strong earthquakes with the M≥7.0 in Taiwan,and the earthquakes mainly occurs within 180 days after the occurrence of the anomaly,mainly characterized by medium and short-term anomalies.Through the analysis and evaluation of the abnormal characteristics and prediction efficiency of radon in the hot spring water,it is conducive to the monitoring and tracking analysis of the earthquake situation in and around the area.

关 键 词：温泉水氡 水文地球化学特征 Molchan图表法 台湾强震 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学]