MSWEP降水数据在信江流域极端降水估算中的应用  

Application of MSWEP Data in Extreme Precipitation Estimation in Xinjiang River Basin

作　　者：尹俊凯 李国芳[1] 王路 马放 李镇洋 YIN Jun-kai;LI Guo-fang;WANG Lu;MA Fang;LI Zhen-yang(College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;College of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310058,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098 [2]浙江大学建筑工程学院,浙江杭州310058

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2022年第7期1-4,共4页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2018YFC1508200,2018YFC1508001);江苏高校“青蓝工程”;中国电力建设股份有限公司重大科技专项(DJ-ZDZX-2016-02-02)。

摘　　要：为探究缺资料地区基于MSWEP降水数据估算极端降水的可行性,基于信江梅港水文站以上流域各测站降水资料,从汛期和非汛期分析了MSWEP的探测能力与探测精度,同时对MSWEP不同历时的极端降水值进行精度评估,发现MSWEP在该流域具有较好的适用性。分别基于MSWEP和测站1981~2016年共36年的极端降水序列,采用频率分析方法估算了不同重现期下的极端降水值。结果表明,两种途径不同重现期下极端降水估算结果的相对偏差均在10%以内,表明在流域缺资料的情况下,基于MSWEP数据估算极端降水具有良好的应用前景,为缺资料地区的极端降水估算提供了参考。In order to explore the feasibility of estimating extreme precipitation based on MSWEP data in ungauged region, the basin above the Meigang hydrological station of Xinjiang River was taken as the research area. Based on the precipitation data of stations in this basin, the detection ability and detection accuracy of MSWEP in flood season and non-flood season were analyzed. At the same time, the accuracy of extreme precipitation values of MSWEP in different periods was evaluated. It is found that the MSWEP has good applicability in this basin. Based on the 36 a extreme precipitation series of MSWEP and stations from 1981 to 2016, respectively, the extreme precipitation values under different return periods were estimated by frequency analysis method. The results show that the relative deviations of the extreme precipitation estimation results of the two approaches at different return periods are all less than 10%, indicating that it is promising to estimate extreme precipitation based on MSWEP data. Overall, the study provides a reference for estimating extreme precipitation in ungauged regions.

关 键 词：MSWEP降水数据 极端降水 缺资料地区 精度评估 频率分析 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学] TV125[水利工程—水文学及水资源]