金沙江流域径流演变过程及影响因素分析  

Analysis of Runoff Evolution Process and Influencing Factors in Jinshajiang River Basin

作　　者：张敏 黄晓荣[1,2] 王延珺 ZHANG Min;HUANG Xiao-rong;WANG Yan-jun(College of Water Resource&Hydropower,Sichuan University,Chengdu 610065,China;State Key Laboratory of Hydraulics and Mountain River Engineering,Sichuan University,Chengdu 610065,China)

机构地区：[1]四川大学水利水电学院,四川成都610065 [2]四川大学水力学与山区河流开发保护国家重点实验室,四川成都610065

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2022年第7期27-31,共5页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51779160)。

摘　　要：为探究金沙江中游径流演变的影响因素,基于金沙江中游攀枝花水文站1966~2017年逐日径流数据,分析了金沙江中游径流的年内分配和年际变化特征;同时利用交叉小波变换、双累积曲线法分析了年径流变化的驱动力。研究结果表明,金沙江中游径流年内分配不均,不均匀系数为77.11%,年径流以1.2×10^(8)m^(3)/a的速率增加;研究区域内降水与径流存在明显相关性,两者差积曲线的相关性为0.705,降水仍是引起攀枝花水文站径流变化的主要因素。同时,人类活动在年尺度上对径流的影响较小;太阳黑子与径流在8~14年尺度上相关系数为0.8以上,相关性显著;径流与四种大气环流因子存在一定相关性,径流与大气环流因子之间存在1~4个显著的共振周期,且均通过了95%的显著性检验。研究成果可为区域水资源规划提供参考。In order to explore the influencing factors of runoff evolution in the middle reaches of the Jinshajiang River, the annual distribution and interannual variation characteristics of runoff were analyzed based on the daily runoff data of Panzhihua Hydrological Station from 1966 to 2017. At the same time, the driving force of annual runoff change was analyzed by cross wavelet transform and the double cumulative curve method. The results show that the annual runoff distribution in the middle reaches of the Jinshajiang River is uneven, and the uneven coefficient is 77.11%. The annual runoff increases at a rate of 120 million m^(3)/a. There is a significant correlation between precipitation and runoff in the study area, and the correlation between the difference product curve is 0.705. Precipitation is still the main factor causing runoff change in Panzhihua hydrological station. The human activities have little impact on runoff at the annual scale. The correlation coefficient between sunspot and runoff is more than 0.8 at the scale of 8-14 years. There is a certain correlation between runoff and four atmospheric circulation factors. There are 1-4 distinct resonance periods between runoff and atmospheric circulation factors, and they all pass the 95 % distinctness test. The research results can provide reference for regional water resources planning.

关 键 词：径流 降水 大气环流因子 太阳黑子 交叉小波变换 

分 类 号：TV121.12[水利工程—水文学及水资源]