大气环流影响下新疆喀什河流域极端径流频率特征研究  

Characteristics of Extreme Runoff Frequency Under Influence of Atmospheric Circulation in Kashihe Basin, Xinjiang

作　　者：高闻 王冉旋 王奕 马志贵 王娟 胡新源 GAO Wen;WANG Ran-xuan;WANG Yi;MA Zhi-gui;WANG Juan;HU Xin-yuan(China Energy Xinjiang Jilintai Hydropower Development Co.,Ltd.,Ili 835000,China)

机构地区：[1]国家能源集团新疆吉林台水电开发有限公司,新疆伊犁835000

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2022年第7期32-35,共4页Water Resources and Power

摘　　要：分析喀什河流域的径流演化特征,对于促进新疆地区的高质量发展有重要意义。基于新疆喀什河流域1958~2019年长序列径流资料,构建以大气环流因子为协变量的非平稳极值模型,对该地区不同月份的极端径流进行频率分析及重现期水平估计。结果表明,该地区不同月份的极端径流均呈现明显的非平稳状态,且与大气环流因子的相关性较高,特别是大西洋多年代际涛动指数。在大气环流影响下,各月极端径流的概率分布函数右倾明显,高强度的极端径流量发生频率会变大,特别是5~8月。随着大气环流因子的强弱变化,各月极端径流的重现期水平也发生了相应变化,即随时间的推移呈增加趋势,与历史观测较为相似。若不考虑极端径流的非平稳特征,将使得未来极端径流重现水平被过低估计。The analysis of runoff evolution characteristics of Kashihe Basin has import meaning to promote high-quality development of Xinjiang Autonomous Region. Based on the long-term runoff data from 1958 to 2019 in the Kashihe basin, Xinjiang, non-stationary extreme value models with atmospheric circulation factors as covariables were constructed to analyze the frequency of extreme runoff and estimate the levels of return periods in different months. The results show that the extreme runoff data in different months are non-stationary, and have a high correlation with atmospheric circulation factors, especially the atlantic multidecadal oscillation index. Moreover, affected by atmospheric circulation, the probability distribution function of extreme runoff in each month is right-leaning, which means the occurrence frequency of high-intensity extreme runoff will become larger, especially from May to August. Furthermore, the return period levels of monthly extreme runoffs also change correspondingly as an increasing trend with the variations of atmospheric circulation factors, which is similar to the historical observation. If the non-stationary characteristics of extreme runoff are not considered, the future extreme runoff recurrence level will be underestimated.

关 键 词：极端径流 大气环流 非平稳极值模型 喀什河流域 

分 类 号：TV121.1[水利工程—水文学及水资源] P333.1[天文地球—水文科学]