铁路运输对云南省经济增长的影响研究  

Influence of Railway Transportation on Economic Growth of Yunnan Province

作　　者：贾春苗 傅忠宁[1] 沈发才 JIA Chunmiao;FU Zhongning;SHEN Facai(School of Traffic and Transportation,Lanzhou Jiaotong University,Lanzhou 730070,Gansu,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州交通大学交通运输学院,甘肃兰州730070

出　　处：《铁道运输与经济》2022年第7期64-70,共7页Railway Transport and Economy

基　　金：国家自然基金地区科学基金项目(71961016);甘肃省教育厅“双一流”科研重点项目(GSSYLXM-04);甘肃省自然科学基金项目(20JR10RA245);中国国家铁路集团有限公司科技研究开发计划重点课题(N2020X015)。

摘　　要：为探究铁路运输与云南省经济增长之间的关系,考虑铁路产出、投资两方面因素,选取铁路营业里程、货物周转量、旅客周转量衡量铁路运输业发展水平,以云南省1999—2020年时间序列数据为例,构建铁路运输与云南省经济增长之间的多元线性回归模型,运用协整理论分析铁路运输与云南省经济增长之间的长期稳定关系及影响程度,并利用Granger因果关系检验判定变量之间的影响方向。铁路运输与云南省经济增长之间的关系表明:铁路营业里程与云南省经济增长之间相互影响,货物周转量对云南省经济增长具有显著的带动作用。通过铁路运输与云南省经济增长之间关系的实证分析,提出充分发挥云南省矿产资源、特色农产品等资源优势,抓住铁路运输发展机遇,带动云南省经济发展的相关建议。To research the relationship between railway transportation and the economic growth of Yunnan Province,considering the factors of railway output and investment, this paper selected the railway operating mileage, cargo turnover,and passenger turnover to measure the development of the railway transportation industry. Taking the time series data of Yunnan Province from 1999 to 2020 as examples, the paper constructed a multiple linear regression model between railway transportation and the economic growth of Yunnan Province. It analyzed the long-term stable relationship using cointegration theory and determined the direction of influence between variables by the Granger causality test. The mathematical relationship shows that the railway operating mileage and the economic growth of Yunnan Province interact with each other, and the cargo turnover has a significant driving effect on the economic growth of Yunnan Province. Given the empirical analysis of the relationship between railway transportation and the economic growth of Yunnan Province,the research put forward some relevant suggestions to give full play to the resource advantage of Yunnan Province, such as mineral resources and characteristic agricultural products, seize the development opportunity of railway transportation,and drive the economic development of Yunnan Province.

关 键 词：铁路运输 云南省 经济发展 协整分析 GRANGER因果检验 

分 类 号：F53O[经济管理—产业经济]