无人机集群任务可靠性建模及重要度分析  

Mission Reliability Modeling and Importance Analysis of UAV Swarm

作　　者：白光晗 张驰 兑红炎[2,3] 张云安 陶俊勇[1] BAI Guanghan;ZHANG Chi;DUI Hongyan;ZHANG Yunan;TAO Junyong(College of Intelligence Science and Technology,National University of Defense Technology,Changsha 410073;School of Management Engineering,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450001;School of Business,Luoyang Vocational&Technical College,Luoyang 471000)

机构地区：[1]国防科技大学智能科学学院,长沙410073 [2]郑州大学管理工程学院,郑州450001 [3]洛阳职业技术学院商学院,洛阳471000

出　　处：《机械工程学报》2022年第10期361-373,共13页Journal of Mechanical Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(72071182,U1904211);教育部人文社科规划基金(20YJA630012);军委科技委基础加强计划技术领域基金(2019-JCJQ-JJ-180,ZZKY-YX-10-03);河南省高校科技创新人才支持计划(22HASTIT022);河南省高等学校青年骨干教师培养计划(2021GGJS007);河南省科技攻关(222102520019)资助项目。

摘　　要：面对复杂、高对抗的战场环境,传统以平台为中心的静态可靠性评估难以满足无人机集群执行多样化任务的可靠性分析需求。由于无人机集群本身具有一定的冗余性,对其可靠性的研究重点已转变为以任务为中心的可靠性。及时、准确评估无人机集群任务可靠性,并分析集群的薄弱环节,对于任务规划、决策制定和提高任务成功率具有重要意义。根据集群的编队队形和任务,建立基于一维线性连续n中取k系统和二维连续(m, n)中取(r, s)系统的无人机集群任务可靠性模型,并得出当集群中不同位置的某架或某些无人机失效时对集群任务可靠性变化以及性能的影响。然后分别建立无人机集群在一维、二维空间的Birnbaum重要度和综合重要度分析模型,确定集群中的薄弱环节和关键无人机。最后基于不同编队形式的无人机集群任务可靠性算例,分析无人机失效对集群任务可靠性以及性能的影响,验证了提出方法的正确性和有效性。Traditional platform-centric static reliability assessment cannot meet the reliability analysis requirements of UAV swarms for diversified tasks under complex and confrontational battlefield. Due to the redundancy of UAV swarms, the research focus on its reliability has changed to mission-centric reliability, which is of great significance for mission planning, decision-making and improving mission success rate. According to the formation and task of the swarm, a mission reliability model of the UAV swarm based on the one-dimensional linear continuous k-out-of-n system and the two-dimensional linear continuous(r, s)-out-of-(m, n)system is developed. The influence on the mission reliability change and performance of the swarm was obtained when one or several UAVs fail. Next, the Birnbaum importance and Integrated importance measure of UAV swarms in one-dimensional and two-dimensional spaces are proposed respectively. The impact of changes in the reliability of UAVs in different locations on the performance of the swarm is analyzed. Then weak links and key UAV in the swarm are determined. Finally, based on the case study of UAV swarm in different formations, the impact of UAVs failure on swarm mission reliability and performance is analyzed and the correctness and effectiveness of the proposed method are verified.

关 键 词：可靠性 无人机集群 Birnbaum重要度 综合重要度 系统性能 

分 类 号：TB114[理学—概率论与数理统计]