中国省域碳排放特征与碳减排路径研究  

Research on Carbon Emission Characteristics and Reduction Pathways of Provinces in China

作　　者：曹俊文[1] 张钰玲 CAO Junwen;ZHANG Yuling(School of Statistics,Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics,Nanchang Jiangxi 330013,China)

机构地区：[1]江西财经大学统计学院,江西南昌330013

出　　处：《生态经济》2022年第8期13-19,共7页Ecological Economy

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“增加值视角下贸易隐含碳核算及绿色贸易利益评估研究”(19BTJ009)。

摘　　要：基于Tapio模型考察各省份碳排放脱钩情况,依据脱钩弹性系数、碳强度构建分类准则对各省份进行类型划分,进一步采用STIRPAT模型识别不同类型省域碳排放的驱动因素,探寻不同类型省域碳减排路径。实证结果表明,对于北京、上海、浙江等类型Ⅰ省域,调整产业结构、优化能源结构是有效的减排途径;对于湖南、湖北、江西等类型Ⅱ省域,优化产业结构、提升城镇化质量是减少碳排放的关键;云南和福建需重点优化产业结构;对于山西和新疆两省区,调整产业结构、优化能源结构是关键;宁夏和内蒙古减排空间较大,需优化产业结构、发展低碳经济、降低碳强度。Based on the Tapio model,this paper investigates the decoupling of carbon emissions in various provinces,and classifies each province according to the decoupling elasticity coefficient and carbon intensity.The STIRPAT model was used to identify the driving factors of carbon emissions in different types of provinces,and explore the paths of carbon emission reduction in different types of provinces.For provinces of the I type such as Beijing,Shanghai and Zhejiang,adjusting the industrial structure and optimizing the energy structure are effective ways to reduce carbon emissions;In Hunan,Hubei,Jiangxi and other provinces in type II,optimizing the industrial structure and improving the quality of urbanization are the key to reducing carbon emissions;Yunnan and Fujian need to focus on optimizing the industrial structure;For Shanxi and Xinjiang,adjusting the industrial structure and optimizing the energy structure are the key to reduce carbon emission;Ningxia and Inner Mongolia have large space for carbon emission reduction.It is necessary to optimize the industrial structure,develop low-carbon economy and reduce carbon intensity.

关 键 词：碳达峰 碳排放 脱钩 STIRPAT模型 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]