中小学校学生流感疫苗接种效果评估和卫生经济学评价  

Assessment on effect of influenza vaccination and its health economics in primary and middle school students

作　　者：许玉成[1] 张瑞银 蔡琳[1] 赵梦蓝 郭聪锐[1] 梁静[1] 钟剑明[1] XU Yu-cheng;ZHANG Rui-yin;CAI Lin;ZHAO Meng-lan;GUO Cong-rui;LIANG Jing;ZHONG Jian-ming(Futian District Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Shenzhen,Guangdong 518040,China;Shenzhen Maternity and Child Healthcare Hospital Affiliated to Southern Medical University,Shenzhen,Guangdong 518040,China)

机构地区：[1]深圳市福田区疾病预防控制中心,广东深圳518040 [2]南方医科大学附属深圳妇幼保健院,广东深圳518040

出　　处：《实用预防医学》2022年第7期814-817,共4页Practical Preventive Medicine

基　　金：2019年广东省医学科研基金项目(B2019165);深圳市福田区公益类科研项目(FTWS2020072)。

摘　　要：目的评估中小学校学生流感疫苗接种效果,开展疫苗接种的卫生经济学评价,为制定流感疫苗接种策略提供依据。方法采用易感者-潜伏者-显性感染者/隐性感染者-移出者/恢复者(susceptible-exposed-infectious/asymptomatic-removed/recovered,SEIARR)动力学模型对既往疫情数据进行模拟,计算累计罹患率评估疫苗接种效果,计算成本-效果和成本-效益进行卫生经济学评价。结果当流感疫苗接种率为0%、50%、70%和90%时,疫情平均累积罹患率为99.79%(99.75%,99.82%)、70.84%(70.58%,71.09%)、56.81%(56.17%,57.45%)和34.29%(32.46%,36.20%),流感疫苗接种率越高,累计罹患率越低;当疫苗接种率为50%、70%和90%时,疫苗的成本-效果比为:141.03(139.86,142.19)元、133.16(131.34,135.08)元和112.90(110.03,116.11)元,疫苗的成本-效益比为:6.27(6.22,6.32)元、6.65(6.56,6.74)元和7.88(7.66,8.09)元;流感疫苗接种率越高,疫苗的成本-效果越好,成本-效益越高。结论接种流感疫苗能有效降低疫情的累计罹患率,提高接种率能有效增加疫苗接种的卫生经济学效应。Objective To evaluate the effect of influenza vaccination among primary and secondary school students,to conduct an evaluation on health economics of vaccination,and to provide a basis for formulating influenza vaccination strategies.Methods The susceptible-exposed-infectious/asymptomatic-removed/recovered(SEIARR)dynamic model was used to simulate past epidemic data.The cumulative attack rate was calculated to evaluate the effect of vaccination,and the cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit were calculated for appraising health economics.Results When the influenza vaccination rates were 0%,50%,70%and 90%,respectively,the average cumulative attack rates of the epidemic were 99.79%(99.75,99.82),70.84%(70.58,71.09),56.81%(56.17,57.45)and 34.29%(32.46,36.20),respectively.The higher the influenza vaccination rate,the lower the cumulative attack rate.When the vaccination rates were 50%,70%and 90%,respectively,the cost-effectiveness ratios of the vaccine were 141.03(139.86,142.19)yuan,133.16(131.34,135.08)yuan and 112.90(110.03,116.11)yuan,respectively,and the cost-benefit ratios of the vaccine were 6.27(6.22,6.32)yuan,6.65(6.56,6.74)yuan and 7.88(7.66,8.09)yuan,respectively.The higher the influenza vaccination rate,the better the cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit of the vaccine.Conclusion Influenza vaccination can effectively reduce the cumulative attack rate of the epidemic,and increasing the vaccination rate can effectively improve the health economic effect of vaccination.

关 键 词：流行性感冒 流感疫苗 动力学模型 卫生经济学评价 

分 类 号：R186[医药卫生—流行病学]