赣江流域洪水峰量演变规律及联合分布研究  

Analysis of evolution law and joint distribution of flood peak and volume in Ganjiang River Basin

作　　者：袁鹏飞 郭红虎 韩会明 吴宇飞 YUAN Pengfei;GUO Honghu;HAN Huiming;WU Yufei(River and Lake Protection Center of Ganzhou City,Ganzhou,Jiangxi,341001,China;Jiangxi Academy of Water Science and Engineering,Nanchang,Jiangxi,330029,China)

机构地区：[1]江西省赣州市河湖保护中心,江西赣州341001 [2]江西省水利科学院,江西南昌330029

出　　处：《江西水利科技》2022年第4期275-279,共5页Jiangxi Hydraulic Science & Technology

基　　金：江西省水利厅科技项目(202224ZDKT06、202223YBKT02、202223YBKT05、202223YBKT16).

摘　　要：为研究赣江流域洪水特征,基于赣江流域外洲水文站1950-2019年共70年逐日流量资料,对年最大洪峰流量和1日洪量进行研究,通过Copula函数研究其洪水峰量联合分布情况。结果表明:赣江洪峰和洪量保持良好的一致性,均呈减少趋势;洪峰和洪量的最优分布均为gamma分布函数;Frank copula函数可以很好的拟合赣江洪峰和洪量的相关关系;洪水单变量重现期为5年一遇时,实际重现期为4.89~5.12年;当单变量重现期为100年一遇时,实际重现期为72.51~161.05年。In order to study the flood characteristics of Ganjiang River Basin,based on the daily flow data of the Ganjiang River Basin Control Hydrological Station for 70 years from 1950 to 2019,the annual maximum peak discharge and the maximum daily flood volume were studied,and the joint distribution of flood peak and volume was studied through the copula function,and the joint return period was analyzed.The results showed that the Ganjiang River flood peak and volume maintained good consistency,and both showed a decreasing trend;The optimal distribution of flood peak and flood volume were both gamma distribution functions;The Frank copula function can fit the correlation between the flood peak and flood volume of the Ganjiang River well.When the univariate return period of flood is 5 years,the actual return period is 4.89~5.12 years;when the univariate return period is 100 years,the actual return period is 72.51~161.05 years.

关 键 词：COPULA函数 洪峰洪量 赣江流域 

分 类 号：P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]