新时期中国生育水平及相关社会发展指标再探析  

Re-analysis of Chinese Fertility Level and the Related Social Development Indexes in the New Period

作　　者：刘旭阳 王广州[1] Liu Xuyang;Wang Guangzhou(Institute of Population and Labor Economics,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100010,China)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院人口与劳动经济研究所,北京100010

出　　处：《学术探索》2022年第7期67-78,共12页Academic Exploration

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(16ZDA090)。

摘　　要：第七次全国人口普查数据是分析当前中国人口规模、结构最具完整性和时效性的数据。利用“七普”数据间接估计2005—2020年中国总和生育率,其结果与人口抽样调查数据以及其他来源数据测算结果不尽相同。趋势上,2014—2015年是生育峰值年,总和生育率先升后降;水平上,2005—2020年总和生育率整体维持在1.6以上,高于人口抽样调查数据对总和生育率水平的判断。从数据质量视角探析“七普”与人口抽样调查数据结果差异原因,本文认为,两种数据均可能受主客观因素的影响,但考虑到“七普”数据与人口抽样调查数据之间的差异,人口抽样调查数据低估生育水平,而“七普”数据也存在高估历史生育水平可能,总和生育率真实水平介于两者之间,接近“七普”数据估算结果的可能性更大。此外,基于“七普”数据计算,2005—2020年小学净入学率、孕产妇住院分娩率、婴儿死亡率较人口抽样调查数据更低,需要深化探析这些指标对中国社会发展的影响。The Seventh National Census gave the most timely and comprehensive data to analyze the current population structure and size of China.The indirect estimation results of China's total fertility rate from 2005 to 2020 based on the Seventh National Census data are different from the results estimated from data of population sampling survey and other sources.On the trend,the total fertility rate rises and peaks in 2014~2015.To the extent,the total fertility rate remains at the level of 1.6 which is higher than the results counted using the data of population sampling survey.To explore the factors influencing the quality of the Seventh National Census data and the population sampling survey data,this paper concludes that objective factors and subjective factors are two key aspects.Giving thoughts to the huge gap between the Seventh National Census data and the population sampling survey data,the population sampling survey data may have underestimated the total fertility rate,while the other data overestimated the total fertility rate.The real total fertility rate should be among the two and near the results of the Seventh National Census data.Such data differences influence the judgement of the net enrollment rate of primary schools,the hospital delivery rate and the infant mortality rate,which affect the judgement of China's social development level in turn.

关 键 词：人口普查 总和生育率 婴儿死亡率 住院分娩率 入学率 

分 类 号：C913.15[经济管理]