基于指数平滑法的铁路客运市场份额预测研究  

Forecast of Railway Passenger Transport Market Share Based on Exponential Smoothing Method

作　　者：吴蒙 WU Meng(National Transportation Market Supervision and Assessment Center,National Railway Administration,Beijing 100891,China)

机构地区：[1]国家铁路局市场监测评价中心,北京100891

出　　处：《综合运输》2022年第7期81-86,130,共7页China Transportation Review

摘　　要：当前我国的经济发展模式已由高速增长转向高质量发展,由于“碳达峰,碳中和”的提出,作为碳排放主要来源之一的交通运输行业,积极推进运输结构调整,加快建设交通强国的任务迫在眉睫。在此宏观背景下,铁路作为是资源节约型、环境友好型运输方式,可在交通运输业减排中发挥重要作用,研究如何提高铁路客运市场份额对于实现交通运输行业减排具有重要意义。本文综述了10年来我国旅客运输市场主要运输方式的客运市场份额变动总体情况,主要表现为我国旅客运输结构逐渐优化,公路虽然是我国客运市场占有率最大的运输方式,但是客运市场份额逐步减小,铁路、民航、水运市场份额不断扩大;分析了铁路客运市场占有率变动的特点,以及铁路客运市场占有率增长的影响因素;研究了铁路客运市场份额发展趋势,运用二次指数平滑法对铁路客运市场份额进行预测,预测结果表明未来3年铁路客运市场份额将稳定增加,最后从发展铁路短途旅客运输、加大政府监管力度、优化列车开行方案、加强铁路与其他运输方式的衔接等方面提出了提高铁路客运市场份额的意见建议,为铁路旅客运输市场的发展提供参考。IAt present, China’s economic development model has changed from high-speed growth to highquality development. Because of the proposal of "peak carbon dioxide emissions, carbon neutrality", the transportation industry, as one of the main sources of carbon emissions, actively promotes the adjustment of transportation structure and accelerates the task of building a transportation power. Under this macro background, railway, as a resource-saving and environment-friendly transportation mode, can play an important role in the emission reduction of transportation industry. It is of great significance to study how to increase the market share of railway passenger transport for realizing emission reduction of transportation industry. This paper summarizes the overall situation of the passenger transport market share changes of the main modes of transport in China’s passenger transport market in the past 10 years, which is mainly manifested in the gradual optimization of the passenger transport structure in China. Although the highway is the largest mode of transport in China’s passenger transport market share, the passenger transport market share gradually decreases, while the market share of railway, civil aviation and water transport continues to expand. This paper analyzes the characteristics of the change of railway passenger transport market share and the influencing factors of the increase of railway passenger transport market share;studies the development trend of railway passenger transport market share, and forecasts the market share of railway passenger transport by using quadratic exponential smoothing method. The forecast results show that the market share of railway passenger transport will increase steadily in the next three years. Finally, some suggestions are put forward to improve the market share of railway passenger transport from the aspects of developing railway short-distance passenger transport, strengthening government supervision, optimizing train operation scheme, and strengthening the co

关 键 词：旅客运输市场 铁路客运市场份额 二次指数平滑法 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]