数据驱动与地质规律融合的超低渗油藏产能预测方法——以元284超低渗油藏为例  

Productivity prediction method of ultra-low permeability reservoir based on data-driven and geological law—taking Yuan 284 ultra-low permeability reservoir as an example

作　　者：郑亚军 刘宝成 张旭泽 薛永超[2] 宋方新 蒋天昊 ZHENG Yajun;LIU Baocheng;ZHANG Xuze;XUE Yongchao;SONG Fangxin;JIANG Tianhao(N0.10 Oil Production Plant of Changqing Oilfield Company,PetroChina,Qingyang,Gansu 745100,China;China University of Petroleum(Beijing),Changping,Beijing 102249,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石油长庆油田分公司第十采油厂,甘肃庆阳745100 [2]中国石油大学(北京),北京昌平102249

出　　处：《石油地质与工程》2022年第4期75-81,共7页Petroleum Geology and Engineering

基　　金：中国石油天然气集团有限公司-中国石油大学(北京)战略合作科技专项“鄂尔多斯盆地致密油-页岩油富集、高效开发理论与关键技术研究”(ZLZX2020-02-04)。

摘　　要：与常规低渗透油藏相比,超低渗油藏产能主控因素不清,产能预测不确定性大,开发效果相对较差。以元284超低渗油藏为例,基于元284区储层流动单元研究成果,综合应用皮尔逊相关系数法和MDI特征选择法,筛选出元284区油井产能主控因素为地质因素和工艺因素,其中地质因素主要包括储层流动单元性质、储层连通性、天然裂缝发育程度,工艺因素包括射孔程度、注采对应关系、注入强度、压裂改造强度、井网特征。利用熵权-AHM法,建立主观-客观双重约束的产能预测模型,从而指导油藏开发调整。Compared with conventional low permeability reservoirs,the main factors controlling the productivity of ultra-low permeability reservoirs are unclear,the uncertainty of productivity prediction is big,and the development effect is relatively poor.Taking Yuan 284 ultra-low permeability reservoir as an example,based on the research results of reservoir flow unit in Yuan 284 area,and comprehensively applying Pearson correlation coefficient and MDI feature selection methods,it is selected that the main controlling factors of oil well productivity are geological factors and technological variables,in which the geological factors mainly include the nature of reservoir flow unit,reservoir connectivity and natural fracture development degree,while the technological variables include perforation degree,injection-production relationship,injection and fracturing intensity,and well pattern characteristics.Using entropy weight-AHM method,a subjective-objective double constraint productivity forecast model is established to provide a guidance for reservoir development adjustment.

关 键 词：超低渗油藏 产能预测 数据挖掘 熵权-AHM法 

分 类 号：TE348[石油与天然气工程—油气田开发工程]