基于SEM的EPC模式下装配式建筑风险评价研究  

Study on risk assessment of prefabricated building under EPC mode based on SEM

作　　者：陈浩楠 段永辉[1] 王翔[2] CHEN Haonan;DUAN Yonghui;WANG Xiang(School of Civil Engineering,Henan University of Technology,Zhengzhou 450001,China;School of Civil Engineering,Zhengzhou Aviation Industry Management College,Zhengzhou 450001,China)

机构地区：[1]河南工业大学土木工程学院,河南郑州4500011 [2]郑州航空工业管理学院土木工程学院,河南郑州450015

出　　处：《河南科技学院学报（自然科学版）》2022年第4期62-70,78,共10页Journal of Henan Institute of Science and Technology(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51708514);河南省高等学校重点科研项目计划(13B520878,14A630029)。

摘　　要：针对EPC模式下装配式建筑风险评价问题,利用结构方程模型(SEM)得出了相应的关键风险要素.采用文献统计分析和探索性因子分析,得出EPC模式下装配式建筑的四大风险因素:设计风险、采购风险、施工风险、管理风险;建立了结构方程评价模型;采用定性与定量方法相结合的方法,探讨各风险因素之间的作用机理.结果显示,一级指标采购风险所占权重最大,二级指标设计深度化、缺陷风险,供货不及时风险,施工人员装配施工技术不成熟,项目经理、监理人员的管理力度的贡献度较高.采购风险对整个工程的费用、进度和质量都存在重大影响,根据以上结果得出采购风险是EPC模式下装配式建筑风险的关键管控工作.Aiming at the risk evaluation of prefabricated building under EPC mode,the key risk factors are obtained by using structural equation model(SEM).First of all,literature statistical analysis and exploratory factor analysis are adopted to obtain the four risk factors of prefabricated buildings under EPC mode:design risk,procurement risk,construction risk and management risk.Furthermore,the evaluation model of structural equation is established.Finally,the mechanism of action among risk factors is discussed by combining qualitative and quantitative methods.The results show that the procurement risk of the first-level index takes the largest weight,the design depth of the second-level index,the risk of defects,the risk of not timely supply,the construction personnel assembly and construction technology is not mature,and the project manager and supervision personnel’s management strength contributes to a higher degree.Procurement risk has a significant impact on the cost,schedule and quality of the whole project.Based on the above results,it is concluded that procurement risk is the key control work of prefabricated construction risk under EPC mode.

关 键 词：多EPC模式 装配式建筑 风险评价 结构方程(SEM) 

分 类 号：TU17[建筑科学—建筑理论]