外表面轴向裂纹管道失效评估误差对比分析  

Research on the Error of Failure Evaluation of the Pipeline with Axial Cracks on the Surface based on Statistical Analysis

作　　者：郭凌云 周晶[1,2] GUO Lingyun;ZHOU Jing(State Key Laboratory of Coast and Offshore Engineering,Dalian University of Technology,Dalian 116024,China;Institute of Earthquake Engineering,Faculty of Infrastructure Engineering,Dalian University of Technology,Dalian 116024,China)

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学海岸与近海工程国家重点实验室,辽宁大连116024 [2]大连理工大学建设工程学部土木工程学院工程抗震研究所,辽宁大连116024

出　　处：《防灾减灾工程学报》2022年第3期586-596,共11页Journal of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Engineering

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0802402)资助。

摘　　要：为了探究不同裂纹管道失效模型的预测误差的不确定性,基于89组实验数据,计算不同规范的预测精度,并采用距离相关系数和Kruskal⁃Wallis检验等统计手段,对裂纹管道的7种失效内压预测模型的预测性能差异进行评估,并对其适用范围提出合理建议。结果表明:所搜集模型的预测精度p0/pC与管道极限内压实验值pC相关关系较弱,可被忽略;根据规范间差异是否显著,可将其分为4组:①模型CorLASTM;②规范R6⁃1、API、Battelle和R6⁃2;③规范R6⁃3和SINTAP;④规范GB和BS7910,从第一到第四组规范,预测结果危险性逐渐降低,保守性逐渐升高;优先使用第二第三组规范进行预测,其优先级顺序:第二组为R6⁃1,API,R6⁃2和Battelle;第三组为R6⁃1和SINTAP;模型CorLASTM可作为裂纹管道极限内压的预估计;规范BS7910和GB应适用于要求较高的项目。It is very important to study the prediction error of the cracked pipe failure model for analyz⁃ing the uncertainty of the pipeline failure state.Based on 89 groups of experimental data,the predic⁃tion performance and application scope of seven prediction models for cracked pipe failures under inter⁃nal pressures was evaluated by using distance correlation coefficients and Kruskal-Wallis tests.The re⁃sults show that the correlation between the prediction accuracy p0/pC and the experimental value pC is weak and can be ignored for all the prediction models.Based on the degree of deviation,the specifica⁃tions can be divided into the CorLASTM model,R6-2,API,Battelle,and R6-1 specifications,R6-3&SINTAP specifications,and GB&BS7910 specifications.From the first to the fourth group,the risk of prediction results is gradually reduced and the conservatism is gradually increased.The priority order of specifications for prediction is R6-1,API,R6-2,and Battelle>SINTAP and R6-3>Cor⁃LASTM models>BS7910 and GB specifications.It is suggested that CorLASTM models can be used for the preliminary estimation of internal pressures and BS7910 and GB specifications are more appli⁃cable to high requirement projects.

关 键 词：外表面轴向裂纹 裂纹管道 失效评定图 距离相关关系 Kruskal-Wallis检验 

分 类 号：TU443[建筑科学—岩土工程]