中、美、俄与中东欧国家地缘经济关系的时空演变  

Spatial-Temporal Evolution of Geoeconomic Relations in China,the USA and Russia with Central and Eastern Europe

作　　者：马腾 李一杰 潘娴 胡志丁 MA Teng;LI Yijie;PAN Xian;HU Zhiding(Alibaba Business School,Hangzhou Normal University,Hangzhou 311121,Zhejiang,China;School of Economics,Hangzhou Normal University,Hangzhou 311121,Zhejiang,China;Institute for Global Innovation and Development,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200062,China)

机构地区：[1]杭州师范大学阿里巴巴商学院,浙江杭州311121 [2]杭州师范大学经济学院,浙江杭州311121 [3]华东师范大学全球创新与发展研究院,上海200062

出　　处：《经济地理》2022年第6期1-12,共12页Economic Geography

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(20&ZD138);国家自然科学基金项目(41871128);杭州师范大学环波罗的海国家研究中心重点项目(环波2022001)。

摘　　要：中东欧地区是世界主要大国(中、美、俄)势力的交汇处,研究中、美、俄三国与中东欧国家的地缘经济关系对理解地区及全球的地缘经济格局具有重要意义。文章基于引力模型,构建指标体系,分析了中、美、俄三国与中东欧地缘经济关系的时空演变特征,并运用多元回归模型探讨地缘经济关系间的相互影响。研究结果如下:(1)国别对比上,中国与中东欧国家的地缘经济关系呈现出总体稳定、局部变化、稳步增长的特征;美国与中东欧国家地缘经济关系整体保持稳定,无显著的改善或恶化趋势,俄罗斯与中东欧国家的地缘经济关系具有显著的阶段性特征,且具有显著差异性。(2)空间格局上,中国与中东欧国家地缘经济关系呈现出均匀分布的格局,美俄两国与中东欧国家地缘经济关系均在不同程度上出现了“中心—外围”格局。(3)主体间相互影响上,中—中东欧与美—中东欧相互之间呈现出负相关,中美两国在中东欧地区一定程度上呈现出竞争态势,中—中东欧与俄—中东欧、美—中东欧与俄—中东欧之间不存在显著的相互影响。Central and Eastern Europe is the intersection of great powers’forces in the world.It is of great significance to study the geoeconomic relations in China,the USA and Russia with Central and Eastern Europe.Based on the gravity model,this paper constructs an index system of geoeconomic to analyze the temporal-spatial evolution of the geoeconomic relations in China,the USA and Russia with Central and Eastern Europe.It uses the econometric model to discuss the interaction of geoeconomic relations among them.The main results are following:1)The geo-economic relations between China and Central and Eastern European show the characteristics of overall stability,local changes and steady growth.The geoeconomic relations between the USA and Central and Eastern European are much stable,with no significant improvement or deterioration trend.The geoeconomic relations in Russia and the USA with Central and Eastern European have significant phased characteristics and differences.2)In terms of spatial pattern,there is no obvious"center-periphery"pattern in geoeconomic relations between China and Central and Eastern Europe,while there is a clear"center-periphery"pattern in the USA and Russia with Central and Eastern European in different degree.3)There is a negative inter-influence on the geoeconomic relations in China and the USA with Central and Eastern European,while there are no significant inter-influence on the geoeconomic relations in China and Russia with Central and Eastern European,and in the USA and Russia with Central and Eastern European.

关 键 词：地缘经济 地缘经济关系 引力模型 中东欧 

分 类 号：F125[经济管理—世界经济]