制造业本地化、技术反噬与经济“逆全球化”  

Manufacturing Localization,Technology Backfire and Economic Deglobalization

作　　者：渠慎宁[1] 杨丹辉[1] QU Shen-ning;YANG Dan-hui(Institute of Industrial Economics CASS,Beijing 100006.China)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院工业经济研究所

出　　处：《中国工业经济》2022年第6期42-60,共19页China Industrial Economics

基　　金：研究阐释党的十九届五中全会精神国家社会科学基金重大项目“推进新型工业化与经济体系优化升级研究”(批准号21ZDA021);国家自然科学基金面上项目“生产网络视角下服务业技术进步影响因素、机制及路径优化研究”(批准号72073139);中国社会科学院创新工程项目“新兴产业高质量发展研究”和中国社会科学院登峰战略优势学科(产业经济学)资助。

摘　　要：国际金融危机后,全球价值链逐渐呈现收缩态势,经济“逆全球化”特征显现。本文旨在就“全球化遭遇逆流”的经济学机理进行思路和方法上的边际创新,选取全球价值链(GVC)参与度作为考察经济“逆全球化”的核心指标,构建多国一般均衡模型,刻画制造业本地化对GVC参与度的影响机理。理论推导发现,随着全球生产结构调整,各国最终产品本地生产情况的变化成为影响其GVC参与度的直接因素。当一国最终产品本地占比上升到一定程度后,中间产品本地占比提高、经济增速低于世界平均水平以及技术进步等情况都会引发GVC参与度下降,导致在生产和贸易层面上发生“逆全球化”现象。通过整理21个国家的投入产出表及相关时间序列数据,本文对理论命题进行了实证检验,实证结果较好地支持了理论推导的结论。在此基础上,本文进一步将讨论拓展至更加宏观的层面,尝试从不同因素组合形成的贸易集中度提高、新工业革命的“技术反噬”效应,以及贸易保护与量化宽松叠加推动的经济增长等经济现象出发,全方位解读经济“逆全球化”的深层动因。本文的理论创见和实证结果为中国构建双循环新发展格局、推动新型全球化提供了依据和支撑。Ever since the international financial crisis, global value chain has been gradually shrinking and resulted in the “deglobalization” feature of international trade.This paper is to carry out marginal innovation in the economic mechanism of “deglobalization”.We choose the GVC participation rate as the key index to describe how the evolution of manufacturing localization affects globalization by constructing a multinational general equilibrium model.Through theoretical derivation, we find that the changes in the proportion of local final products become the direct factors affecting GVC participation rate.When the proportion of final products in a country rises to a certain level, the increase in the proportion of local intermediate production rate, economic growth rate lower than the world average and technological progress will all trigger a decline in GVC participation rate in turn with production and trade “deglobalization”.On this basis, this paper sorts out the input-output tables and relevant time series data of 21 countries, and makes an empirical test on the theoretical proposition.Furthermore, this paper analyzes the deep motivations of “deglobalization” from the perspective of a combination of multiple factors.We observe that the increase of trade concentration driven by import substitution in emerging economies, a so-called “backfire” effect driven by the new industrial revolution, coupled with the implementation of unilateralism and quantitative easing policies by developed countries, has intensified the “reverse” evolutionary trend of globalization.The main findings of this paper provide theoretical basis and empirical support for China to accelerate the construction of the new development paradigm of dual circulation and initiate the new type of global governance.

关 键 词：制造业本地化 技术反噬 新工业革命 逆全球化 GVC参与度 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]