俄乌冲突下德国新政府外交与安全政策的转型  

An Analysis of the Transformation of the German Government’s Foreign and Security Policy in the Context of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict

作　　者：郑春荣[1] 李勤 ZHENG Chunrong;LI Qin

机构地区：[1]同济大学德国问题研究所/欧盟研究所 [2]同济大学外国语学院

出　　处：《欧洲研究》2022年第3期126-154,I0005,共30页Chinese Journal of European Studies

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大研究专项(批准号:20VGQ011)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：俄乌冲突爆发后,朔尔茨总理在2022年2月27日联邦议院特别会议上宣布向乌克兰提供致命性武器并大幅增加国防开支等一系列举措,标志着德国外交与安全政策迎来“历史性转型”的重要时刻。本文基于赫尔曼的分析模型对德国新政府外交与安全政策转型及其动因展开分析。研究发现,德国新政府外交与安全政策的转型属于外交手段变化的范畴,这一“质变”固然离不开俄乌冲突作为重大外部冲击施加的影响,但不可忽略的是其他因素对这一政策变化的推动,如“克制文化”约束作用的弱化、朔尔茨的驱动、外交与安全领域相关政治行为体的倡议、民众在运用军事手段和对俄政策上立场的变化,加上其他外部压力,如美国对德国增加防务投入的长期施压、自特朗普执政以来的“战略回缩”,以及欧盟加强战略自主的努力。这些国内外因素在带来推动力的同时,也对德国外交与安全政策转型的落地施加了诸多阻力,以至于这一转型仍将是一个需要整固的过程。无论如何,德国新政府外交与安全政策的转型将给欧洲内部的安全合作、欧俄及欧美安全关系产生深远影响。After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war in February 2022,Federal Chancellor Scholz announced a package of initiatives in an emergency session of the Bundestag,such as providing lethal weapons to Ukraine and significantly raising defense spending,which signaled a critically “historic transformation”in German foreign and security policy. Based on Charles Hermann’s analytical model,this paper analyzes the transformation of the new German government’s foreign and security policy and the motivations behind it. It finds that the transformation of the new German government’s foreign and security policy falls within the realm of a change in its diplomatic tools,and this“qualitative change”cannot be separated from the Russia-Ukraine war as a major external shock. However,a number of other factors which have contributed to this policy change cannot be ignored as well,such as the weakening role of the“culture of restraint”,the role played by Federal Chancellor Scholz,initiatives from the relevant political actors in the German foreign and security sphere,changes in the position of the German public on the use of military means and on the policy towards Russia,and other external pressures including the long-standing US pressure on Germany to increase defense budget,the“strategic pullback”since Trump took office,and the EU’s efforts to strengthen its strategic autonomy. Both momentum and obstruction have been created by the above factors to Germany’s foreign and security policy transformation,so that it will remain a process that requires consolidation. No matter what the final result will be like,the transformation of the new German government’s foreign and security policy will have a far-reaching influence on intra-European security cooperation,as well as on Europe-Russia and Europe-America security relations.

关 键 词：俄乌冲突 德国 外交与安全政策 防务政策 转型 

分 类 号：D851.6[政治法律—政治学]