NCSS软件圆形分布法在传染病季节分布特征分析中的运用  

Application of NCSS Software Circular Distribution Method in Analyzing the Seasonal Distribution Characteristics of Infectious Disease

作　　者：何斌[1] 王洪源[2] HE Bin;WANG Hong-Yuan(Haidian District Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 100094;School of Public Health,Peking University,Beijing 100191)

机构地区：[1]北京市海淀区疾病预防控制中心,北京100094 [2]北京大学公共卫生学院,北京100191

出　　处：《中国口岸科学技术》2022年第6期62-67,共6页China Port Science and Technology

摘　　要：研究NCSS(Number Cruncher Statistical System)软件圆形分布法在传染病季节性分布特征分析中的应用,为季节性传染病的精准防控提供依据。以2015—2019年北京市海淀区手足口病例相关数据为源数据,使用Excel 2016整理数据,运用NCSS12.0统计软件的圆形分布法绘制手足口病的发病季节分布玫瑰图,分析2015—2019年北京市海淀区手足口病季节分布特征,手足口病疫情数据来自中国疾病预防控制信息系统。2015—2019年北京市海淀区手足口病发病集中趋势值R分别为0.6138、0.5988、0.4845、0.6987、0.4934,经雷氏Z检验(Rayleigh’s test),差异均有统计学意义,总体平均角存在,2015—2019年海淀区手足口病发病均有明显的季节性。2015—2019年北京市海淀区手足口病高峰日分别为7月9日、7月17日、8月23日、8月7日和8月25日。NCSS12.0软件圆形分布法利用原始数据进行统计分析,生成的玫瑰图能够直观显示发病的季节性分布特点,并且可以得到圆形分布法的各种统计指标,定量地计算出发病高峰时点和区间,可为卫生及口岸检疫机构针对性地采取防控预警措施提供参考依据。This article studied the application of NCSS(Number Cruncher Statistical System) software circular distribution as a statistic tool in analyzing seasonal distribution characteristics of infectious diseases and provided scientific basis for more accurate prevention and control of seasonal infectious diseases. Collating data of the seasonal distribution of hand foot and mouth disease(HFMD) cases in Haidian District, Beijing from 2015 to 2019 as analyzing subject. Using Excel 2016 to organize data, then drawing the rose diagram of the seasonal distribution of HFMD with circular distribution method of NCSS12.0 statistical software. The data on the HFMD were obtained from China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention. From 2015 to 2019, the central trend values R of HFMD in Haidian District, Beijing were 0.6138, 0.5988, 0.4845, 0.6987 and 0.4934 respectively. By Rayleigh’s test, the differences were statistically significant, and the overall average angle existed. The incidence of HFMD in Haidian District from 2015 to 2019 had obvious seasonality. The peak days of HFMD in Haidian District, Beijing in 2015-2019 were 9 July, 17 July,23 August, 7 August and 25 August respectively. The circular distribution method of NCSS12.0 uses the original data for statistical analysis, the generated rose chart can directly show the seasonal distribution characteristics of the disease, and can obtain various statistical indicators of the circular distribution method to quantitatively calculate the peak time and interval of the disease, which can provide reference for health and port quarantine agencies to take targeted prevention and early warning measures.

关 键 词：NCSS软件 圆形分布 手足口病 季节分布 

分 类 号：R185[医药卫生—流行病学]