中国碳达峰碳中和路径优化方法  

Optimization Method for China’s Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality Roadmap

作　　者：魏一鸣[1] 余碧莹[1] 唐葆君[1] 刘兰翠 廖华[1] 陈景明 安润颖 赵光普 孙飞虎 吴郧 谭锦潇 邹颖 赵子豪 WEI Yiming;YU Biying;TANG Baojun;LIU Lancui;LIAO Hua;CHEN Jingming;AN Runying;ZHAO Guangpu;SUN Feihu;WU Yun;TAN Jinxiao;ZOU Ying;ZHAO Zihao(Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research,Beijing Institute of Technology,Beijing 100081,China;School of Business,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China)

机构地区：[1]北京理工大学能源与环境政策研究中心,北京100081 [2]北京师范大学经济与工商管理学院,北京100875

出　　处：《北京理工大学学报（社会科学版）》2022年第4期3-12,共10页Journal of Beijing Institute of Technology：Social Sciences Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71822401,71603020,71521002);北京市自然科学基金项目(JQ19035)。

摘　　要：碳中和是涉及自然、社会、经济、行为、技术、能源等多系统交织耦合和多重反馈的复杂巨系统,面临跨系统跨部门耦合性、分行业异构性、技术成本动态性、技术和行为演变非线性、社会经济不确定性等诸多挑战。开展“双碳”目标约束下碳排放技术体系研究,亟需建立能刻画上述挑战内涵的方法和技术。为此,从复杂系统的视角,自主设计构建了自下而上的国家能源技术模型(C^(3)IAM/NET),耦合“能源加工转换—运输配送—终端使用—末端回收治理”全过程、行业“原料—燃料—工艺—技术—产品/服务”全链条,实现以需定产、供需联动、技术经济协同的复杂系统建模。为碳达峰碳中和路径优化、时间表和路线图的设计提供了有效的方法和工具。该工具成功应用于中国碳达峰和碳中和路径的优化设计,但为了方便不同类型读者的阅读,关于模型应用的相关内容,将在本文的姊妹篇(中国碳达峰碳中和时间表与路线图研究)中介绍。Achieving carbon neutrality is related to a complex giant system involving interwoven coupling and feedback of multiple systems including nature,society,economy,behavior,technology and energy.It faces many challenges such as cross-system and cross-sectoral coupling,sub-industry heterogeneity,technology cost dynamics,nonlinearity of technology and behavioral evolution,and social and economic uncertainties.To carry out the research of carbon emission technology planning under the constraint of carbon peak and carbon neutrality target,it is urgent to develop appropriate methods and models that can depict the connotation of the above challenges.To this end,this research designs and builds a bottom-up national energy technology model(named C3IAM/NET)from the perspective of complex system,by coupling the whole process including energy conversion,transportation,end-use consumption,recycling management and end treatment,and meanwhile coupling the whole industry chain including raw material,fuel,production process,technology and product/service.Finally,C3IAM/NET model fulfills the goal of production determined by demand,supply and demand interlinkage,and the coordination between technology and economy.C^(3)IAM/NET model provides effective method and tools for the design of low-carbon transition pathway.C3IAM/NET model has been successfully applied to the optimization of carbon peak and carbon neutrality schedule and roadmap for China.But in order to facilitate the reading of different types of readers,the relevant content of the model application will be introduced in the sister article(Roadmap for achieving China’s Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality).

关 键 词：碳达峰碳中和 复杂系统建模 国家能源技术模型 路径优化 

分 类 号：F205[经济管理—国民经济]