管理者动态过度乐观与业绩预告质量  

Dynamic Over-optimism of Management and the Quality of Management Earnings Forecast

作　　者：宋云玲[1] 吕佳宁[1] 黄晓蓓[2] 刘向伟[1] Song Yunling;Lv Jianing;Huang Xiaobei;Liu Xiangwei(School of Economics and Management,University of Inner Mongolia,Hohhot 010021;School of Economics and Management,North University of Technology,Beijing 100144)

机构地区：[1]内蒙古大学经济管理学院,呼和浩特010021 [2]北方工业大学经济管理学院,北京100144

出　　处：《管理评论》2022年第5期188-201,共14页Management Review

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71762023,71602004,71472165);财政部全国高端会计人才(学术类)培养工程;内蒙古自治区自然科学基金项目(2016MS0704);北京市社会科学基金项目(19GLC059)。

摘　　要：管理层在以往业绩预告的连续成功会催生动态过度乐观,动态过度乐观会通过乐观预期和管理者机会主义行为两种机理影响本期业绩预告的质量。基于2003—2016年A股公司强制性业绩预告的数据表明,在其他条件相同时,以往业绩预告连续成功的次数越多,本期业绩预告乐观偏差的程度越小、准确度越高。进一步的分析显示,业绩预告的监管压力是乐观预期机理被削弱的主要因素。在考虑静态过度自信、管理层预测能力和稳健风格以及公司的业绩水平等因素后,结果仍然稳健。本文从信息披露的角度为管理者动态过度乐观的积极面提供了新证据,有助于监管机构与资本市场参与者更好地理解管理层业绩预告行为。The series of success on prior management earnings forecast(MEF)can induce dynamic over-optimism in management which will affect the quality of current MEF via the mechanism of optimistic expectation and/or managerial opportunism.The results based on mandatory MEFs disclosed by A-share listed companies during the period of 2003-2016 indicate that,other things being equal,the optimistic bias and error of current management earnings forecast will decrease in the series of success on prior management earnings forecast.Further analysis shows that regulatory pressure confronted by management is the key detrimental factor to the mechanism of optimistic expectation.The results are robust after controlling for static over-confidence,management forecasting ability and conservative style,and level of earnings.We provide evidence on the bright side of management's dynamic over-optimism from the perspective of information disclosure,which will help regulators and capital market participants to better understand management forecasting behavior.

关 键 词：动态过度乐观 静态过度自信 业绩预告质量 预测能力 

分 类 号：F832.51[经济管理—金融学] F272.92