夏季奥运会中国体育代表团金牌分布、影响因素及竞技体育实力提升策略  

Gold Medals Distribution,Influencing Factors and Competitive Sports Strength Promotion Strategies of Summer Olympic Games in China

作　　者：黄彩虹 阳艺武[2] 吕万刚[3] 周晗琼 HUANG Caihong;YANG Yiwu;LYU Wangang;ZHOU Hanqiong(School of Physical Education,Hubei University of Technology,Wuhan,Hubei 430068,China;School of Physical Education,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan,Hubei 430070,China;Wuhan Sports University,Wuhan,Hubei 430079,China)

机构地区：[1]湖北工业大学体育学院,湖北武汉430068 [2]武汉理工大学体育学院,湖北武汉430070 [3]武汉体育学院,湖北武汉430079

出　　处：《首都体育学院学报》2022年第4期438-446,共9页Journal of Capital University of Physical Education and Sports

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(19ZDA354);湖北省决策咨询研究重点项目(2021A002)。

摘　　要：采用文献资料法、对比分析法和逻辑推理等研究方法,从时空、区域、性别、项目4个维度梳理近10届夏季奥运会中国体育代表团所获金牌总数的分布特征,探讨各省份所获金牌总数的影响因素,并对竞技体育实力提升策略进行逻辑推理。结果:历届夏季奥运会中国体育代表团金牌总数呈稳中有升态势,在时空、区域、性别、项目4个维度均存在较大差异;女运动员比男运动员金牌贡献率高,但不存在“阴盛阳衰”的统计学意义;各省份金牌总数与经济学、人口学因素呈正相关态势,但只有经济基础、东京奥运会金牌数量对各省份金牌总数影响明显,表明经济实力对金牌总数具有较大影响,东京奥运会的金牌贡献主要来源于竞技体育传统优势和潜优势省份。结论:我国竞技体育实力在各省份的项目发展规模和结构方面依然存在不充分、不平衡现象,呈现出传统优势项目金牌贡献率空间饱和,潜优势和非优势项目突破不力;影响广且社会化程度高的“三大球”、基础大项和新兴项目整体实力不强;同场对抗性和轮换攻防对抗性项群有待突破等特征。应从推动竞技体育社会化改革、形成运动项目均衡化布局、加强后备人才质量化建设、重视运动训练科学化水平来统筹兼顾、系统谋划,全方位提升我国竞技体育实力。Using research methods such as literature review,comparative analysis,and logical reasoning,sorting out the distribution characteristics of the total number of gold medals won by China in the past 10 Summer Olympic Games from the four dimensions of time and space,region,gender and event,discussing the influencing factors of the total number of gold medals won by provinces,autonomous regions and municipalities,and make logical inferences on strategies for improving competitive sports strength.Results:The total number of gold medals in previous Summer Olympics has shown a steady upward trend,and there were big differences in the four dimensions of time and space,region,gender and event;Female athletes have a higher gold medal contribution rate than male athletes,but there is no statistical significance of“women do better than men”.The total number of gold medals in each province is positively correlated with economic and demographic factors,but only the economic foundation and the number of gold medals in the Tokyo Olympic Games have a significant impact on the total number of gold medals in each province,indicating that economic strength has a greater impact on the total number of gold medals,and the contribution of gold medals in the Tokyo Olympics is mainly from the source Provinces with traditional advantages and potential advantages in competitive sports.Conclusion:The competitive sports strength in China is still insufficient and unbalanced in terms of the development scale and structure of various provinces and projects,it shows that the gold contribution rate of traditional advantageous projects is saturated,and potential and non-advantage projects are not able to break through.The“three major balls”(football,basketball and volleyball),basic major projects and emerging projects with wide influence and high degree of socialization are not strong in overall strength.The same field confrontation and rotation attack and defense confrontation items need to be broken through.It is necessary to promote the

关 键 词：夏季奥运会 金牌分布 竞技体育实力 影响因素 提升策略 

分 类 号：G811.211[文化科学—体育学]