人口老龄化、企业家精神与中国制造业高质量发展——基于三阶段DEA-Malmquist方法的实证分析  

Population Aging, Entrepreneurship and High-Quality Development of China’s Manufacturing Sector: Empirical Analysis Based on Three-Stage DEA-Malmquist Method

作　　者：曹婧博 胡日东[2] CAO Jingbo;HU Ridong(School of Economics and Finance,Huaqiao University Quanzhou 362021,Fjian Province,China;Institute of Quantitative Economics,Huaqiao University,Xiamen 361021,Fujian Province,China)

机构地区：[1]华侨大学经济与金融学院,福建泉州362021 [2]华侨大学数量经济研究院,福建厦门361021

出　　处：《老龄科学研究》2022年第6期1-13,共13页Scientific Research on Aging

基　　金：福建省科技创新战略研究联合项目“人口老龄化对家庭金融资产选择的影响研究”(2020R0160)。

摘　　要：将企业家精神作为中介变量,基于2000—2019年中国30个省(区、市)的省级面板数据,使用三阶段DEA-Malmquist方法,对制造业高质量发展水平进行测算。利用随机效应和中介效应模型,研究了人口老龄化对中国制造业高质量发展的影响。结果表明:人口老龄化程度加深使得中国制造业不得不谋求高质量发展以实现制造业持续增长,在不同区域和老龄化的不同发展阶段,人口老龄化对制造业高质量发展的促进作用有所不同,且会通过鼓舞企业家精神对制造业高质量发展产生正向影响。By introducing entrepreneurship as an intermediate variable, this paper used the threestage DEA-Malmquist method to measure the quality of China’s manufacturing industry based on the panel data of 30 provinces(cities, districts) in China from 2000 to 2019. The impact of population aging on the high-quality development of China’s manufacturing sector was studied by using random and mediated effects models. Results show that the evolvement of population aging urges China’s manufacturing industry to develop in a high-quality way to achieve sustainable growth. The contribution of population aging to high-quality development of the manufacturing sector varies across regions and at different development stages, and it will positively affect development by encouraging entrepreneurship.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 企业家精神 制造业 三阶段DEA-Malmquist方法 

分 类 号：C924.4[社会学—人口学]