多情景模拟下的中国城镇用地扩展预测  

Projection of urban land expansion in China under multi-scenario simulations

作　　者：孙健 张增祥 左丽君 赵晓丽 汪潇 易玲 刘芳 徐进勇 胡顺光 孙菲菲 SUN Jian;ZHANG Zeng-xiang;ZUO Li-jun;ZHAO Xiao-li;WANG Xiao;YI Ling;LIU Fang;XU Jin-yong;HU Shun-guang;SUN Fei-fei(Aerospace Information Research Institute,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院空天信息创新研究院,北京100101 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049

出　　处：《湖北农业科学》2022年第13期142-150,共9页Hubei Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFE0104600)。

摘　　要：作为人类活动的密集区,城镇用地的扩展对其他土地利用类型和周围环境都将产生重要影响。采用异速生长模型对Dinamica EGO模型的总量预测模块进行改进,在此基础上开展了多情景模拟下的中国城镇用地扩展预测。结果表明,相比2000—2015年,2015—2030年5种情景下中国城镇用地扩展面积降低了58.07%~64.17%,表明中国将要迈过城镇化速度峰值;中部和西部地区、中等城市的城镇用地扩展速率将加快,表明东中西部、大中小城市城镇发展的差距将会缩小,区域、城市协调发展战略效果显著;化石燃料为主的发展情景下,不同地区、不同规模城市的市均扩展面积差异较其他情景增大,表明该情景不但不利于气候变暖减缓,而且不利于区域协调发展。As a dense area of human activities,the expansion of urban land will have an important impact on other land use types and the surrounding environment.The allometric growth model was used to improve the total amount prediction module of Dinamica EGO model.On this basis,the expansion prediction of urban land in China under the multi-scenario simulation was carried out.The results show that compared with 2000—2015,the expansion area of urban land in China under the five scenarios from 2015 to 2030 has de⁃creased by 58.07%~64.17%,indicating that China will surpass the peak of urbanization speed.The expansion rate of urban land in the central and western regions and medium-sized cities will accelerate,indicating that the gap of urban development between different re⁃gions and cities of different sizes will be narrowed,and the effect of regional and urban coordinated development strategy will be re⁃markable.Under the development scenario dominated by fossil fuels,the difference of urban expansion area per city in different re⁃gions and cities of different sizes is larger than that in other scenarios,indicating that this scenario is not conducive to climate warming mitigation,but also to regional coordinated development.

关 键 词：城镇用地扩展 共享社会经济路径 异速生长模型 Dinamica EGO模型 

分 类 号：TU984.11[建筑科学—城市规划与设计]