新型城镇化对农业碳排放强度影响的空间效应和门槛特征  

Spatial effect of new urbanization on agricultural carbon emission intensity and threshold characteristics

作　　者：何婷婷[1] 张丽琼[1] HE Tingting;ZHANG Liqiong(College of Economics&Management,Anhui Agricultural University,Hefei 230036,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽农业大学经济管理学院,安徽合肥230036

出　　处：《山西农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2022年第4期23-37,共15页Journal of Shanxi Agricultural University:Social Science Edition

基　　金：安徽高校人文社会科学研究项目“城乡融合发展视角下乡村振兴与新型城镇化融合发展研究——以安徽省为例”(SK2020A0135);安徽农业大学繁荣发展社科基金重点项目“R&D溢出、异质性人力资本与农业绿色TFP增长研究——基于国际化渠道比较视角”(2019zs05zd)。

摘　　要：研究新型城镇化对农业碳排放强度的具体影响对指导农业低碳发展以及实现碳达峰、碳中和目标具有重要的现实意义。采用1997-2018年中国31个省(市、区)的面板数据,构建新型城镇化水平测度的综合评价指标体系,运用探索性空间数据分析、空间计量模型和面板门槛计量模型,分析农业碳排放强度的空间分布和集聚状况,探究新型城镇化对农业碳排放强度的空间效应和门槛特征。结果表明,各省区间农业碳排放强度存在显著的空间自相关性,且空间集聚状态较为平稳;新型城镇化对农业碳排放强度存在显著的负向直接效应和间接效应,新型城镇化与农业碳排放强度之间存在以农业产业结构、农业机械化程度为门槛变量的单一门槛效应,跨越门槛值后新型城镇化的减排效应有所下降。Based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 1997 to 2018,this paper constructs a comprehensive evaluation index system for the measurement of new urbanization level,and uses the exploratory spatial data analysis method to analyze the spatial distribution and agglomeration of agricultural carbon emission intensity,adopts spatial panel measurement model and panel threshold measurement model to explore the spatial effect and threshold characteristics of new urbanization on agricultural carbon emission intensity.The results show that there are significant spatial autocorrelation of agricultural carbon emission intensity among provinces,and the spatial agglomeration state is relatively stable.The new urbanization has significant negative direct and indirect effects on agricultural carbon emission intensity.There is a single threshold effect between new urbanization and agricul⁃tural carbon emission intensity,with agricultural industrial structure and the degree of agricultural mechanization as the threshold,after crossing the threshold value,the emission reduction effect of new urbanization is declined.

关 键 词：新型城镇化 农业碳排放强度 空间效应 门槛特征 

分 类 号：F32[经济管理—产业经济]