高寒草原蝗虫暴发成灾气象指标及预报方法  

Meteorological index and forecast method for grasshopper outbreaks in alpine grasslands

作　　者：杨发源[1,2,3] 颜亮东 赵梦凡[2,3] 刘洁 YANG Fayuan;YAN Liangdong;ZHAO Mengfan;LIU Jie(Hainan Meteorological Bureau of Qinghai,Hainan 813099,Qinghai,China;Qinghai Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Xi’ning 810001,Qinghai,China;Key Laboratory for Disaster Prevention and Mitigation in Qinghai,Xi’ning 810001,Qinghai,China;Haibei Animal Husbandry Meteorological Experimental Station of Qinghai,Haibei 812000,Qinghai,China)

机构地区：[1]青海省海南州气象局,青海海南813099 [2]青海省气象科学研究所,青海西宁810001 [3]青海省防灾减灾重点实验室,青海西宁810001 [4]青海省海北牧业气象试验站,青海海北812000

出　　处：《草业科学》2022年第7期1354-1362,共9页Pratacultural Science

基　　金：中国科学院、青海省人民政府和三江源国家公园联合研究专项(LHZX2020-07)。

摘　　要：通过分析青海环湖山地、盆地草原蝗虫(卵)主要发育期与气象条件的关系,选择平均气温距平、降水距平百分率、越冬期积雪覆盖日数等主要影响因子,将高寒草原蝗虫在不同发育期的发生发展气象适宜程度和气象风险分别划为4级,根据综合气象风险等级阈值,构建高寒草原蝗虫暴发成灾气象风险等级指标及预报方程。将预报结果与历年蝗虫实际发生面积和发生密度资料进行对比,平均预报准确率在73%以上。研究结果可为高寒草原蝗虫灾害的预报和防治提供科技支撑和决策依据。Taking Qinghai Province as the research object,the relationship between the primary growth period of grasshoppers and meteorological conditions in grasslands in the mountains and basins of Qinghai Lake was analyzed.The main influencing factors were determined as the average temperature anomaly,percentage precipitation anomaly,and days of snow cover during the winter.The meteorological suitability degree and meteorological risk for the occurrence and development of locusts at different developmental stages were divided into four levels based on the main influencing factors.Subsequently,the meteorological risk grade index and forecast equation for grasshopper outbreak disaster were constructed according to the threshold value of the comprehensive meteorological risk grade.

关 键 词：高寒草原 蝗虫灾害 蝗虫发育期 气温 降水 气象风险 

分 类 号：S812.6[农业科学—草业科学]