2022年国内外总体物价形势和重要大宗商品价格形势的分析与应对  

Analysis of the Overall Price Situation at Home and Abroad and the Price Situation of Important Commodities in 2022 and Policy Response Suggestions

作　　者：梁俊 曾铮[1] LIANG Jun;ZENG Zheng(Institute of Market and Price,Academy of Macroeconomic Research,NDRC,100038)

机构地区：[1]国家发展和改革委员会宏观经济研究院市场与价格研究所,100038

出　　处：《财经智库》2022年第3期93-107,146,147,共17页Financial Minds

摘　　要：2022年,受经济持续复苏、供给端频繁扰动和宽松货币政策尾部效应影响,全球通胀压力巨大。输入型通胀压力加大、“稳增长”政策发力对2022年国内物价水平会形成一定支撑,下半年如果猪肉价格反弹以及服务消费恢复,国内物价上涨压力将有所加大。2022年国内总体物价水平有望延续2021年以来的温和上涨态势,预计全年CPI同比增长1.5%~2.5%。2022年国际主要能源、粮食和金属类大宗商品的价格将维持在高位,可能带动国内石油、天然气、大豆、铝、镍等高对外依存度商品的价格出现共振式上涨。需要高度关注国内外重要大宗商品价格走势,并增强对受冲击较大的市场主体的财政货币政策支持,提升储备调节能力和国内产能,加强期现货市场联动监管,完善多元进口供应体系,共同推动大宗商品保供稳价。Due to the sustained economic recovery,frequent supply-side disturbances and the tail effect of loose monetary policy,the global inflationary pressure will remain high in 2022.The increasing pressure of imported inflation and the growthstabilizing policy will affect the domestic price level this year.If pork prices rebound and service consumption recovers in the second half of the year,domestic inflationary pressure is likely to rise.This year’s overall domestic price level is expected to sustain the moderate upward trend since last year,and the annual CPI is expected to increase by 1.5% to 2.5% year-on-year.Globally,the prices of major commodities including energy,grain and metal will remain high this year,which may lead to a contagious rise in domestic prices of oil,natural gas,soybean,aluminum,nickel and other commodities with high external dependence.It is necessary to track the price trend of important commodities at home and abroad,strengthen fiscal and monetary policy support to market entities that have been severely hit,improve reserve adjustment capabilities and domestic production capacity,strengthen joint supervision of futures and spot markets,and improve diversified import-oriented supply systems to jointly promote commodity supply and stabilize prices.

关 键 词：物价形势 大宗商品价格 输入型通胀 保供稳价 

分 类 号：F714.1[经济管理—产业经济]