基于人粮关系的江西省土地资源承载力研究  

Research on the Carrying Capacity of Land Resources in Jiangxi Province Based on the Relationship between People and Food

作　　者：张颖 刘平辉[1] 朱传民[1] Zhang Ying;Liu Pinghui;Zhu Chuanmin(School of Earth Sciences,East China University of Technology,Nanchang Jiangxi 330000,China)

机构地区：[1]东华理工大学地球科学学院,江西南昌330000

出　　处：《国土与自然资源研究》2022年第5期13-17,共5页Territory & Natural Resources Study

基　　金：江西省高校人文社会科学研究项目(JC19101);抚州市社会科学规划项目(19SK18)。

摘　　要：为科学评估土地资源的合理承载量,本文采用土地资源承载力和土地资源限制度模型并借助Arc GIS对江西省土地资源承载力进行动态分析,同时对江西省分地市未来10年内的土地资源承载力进行了预测。结果表明,(1)从整体上看,2000—2019年江西省粮食波动指数浮动较小,土地资源承载指数整体呈现下降趋势,由2000年的1.03降至2019年的0.87,江西省土地资源承载力日益增强。(2)2000—2019年江西省分地市的土地资源承载力类型中,人口超载区集中在江西省北部的九江市和南部的赣州市,土地资源承载力呈现“南北低中间高”的格局。(3)2029年江西省只有赣州市的土地资源承载力类型仍处在人口超载类型区,土地资源承载指数为1.241,剩余10个地市的土地资源承载力逐渐增强,人粮关系日渐和谐。In order to scientifically evaluate the reasonable carrying capacity of land resources,this paper uses the model of land resource carrying capacity and land resource restriction degree and uses ArcGIS to dynamically analyze the carrying capacity of land resources in Jiangxi Province.The carrying capacity of land resources was predicted.The results show that,(1)on the whole,the grain fluctuation index of Jiangxi Province from 2000 to 2019 fluctuates slightly,and the land resource carrying index shows an overall downward trend,from 1.03 in2000 to 0.87 in 2019.Land resources in Jiangxi Province the carrying capacity is increasing day by day.(2)Among thetypesof land resource carrying capacity of different cities in Jiangxi Province from 2000 to 2019,the over populated areas were concentrated in Jiujiang City in the north of Jiangxi Province and Ganzhou City in the south,and the land resource carrying capacity showed a pattern of“low north and middle high”.(3)In 2029,only Ganzhou City in Jiangxi Province will have a land resource carrying capacity type that is still in a population overloaded area,with a land resource carrying index of 1.241.The remaining 10cities will gradually increase their land resource carrying capacity,and the relationship between people and food will become increasingly harmonious.

关 键 词：人粮关系 土地资源承载力 灰色预测模型 时空演变 江西省 

分 类 号：F301[经济管理—产业经济]