国内外水资源脆弱性研究进展与展望  

Progress and future prospects of water resources vulnerability at home and abroad

作　　者：袁媛[1] 郑艳[2] YUAN Yuan;ZHENG Yan(University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences(Graduate School),Beijing 102488;Instituteof Ecological Civilizationinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100028,China)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院大学(研究生院),北京102488 [2]中国社会科学院生态文明研究所,北京100028

出　　处：《干旱区资源与环境》2022年第7期116-125,共10页Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment

基　　金：科技部国家重点研发计划(2018YFC1509003)资助。

摘　　要：水资源脆弱性是可持续发展领域的研究热点之一,梳理其发展动态、重要研究领域及前沿趋势,将对后续理论研究与实践探索提供借鉴。文中通过文献梳理得出以下结论:1)水资源脆弱性的概念内涵由起点视角下作为系统内部属性的固有脆弱性拓展到考虑外部扰动的特殊脆弱性,再到结果视角下系统受到扰动并经过适应措施之后存在的净影响。2)水文地质条件、气候变化和城市化等多种因素影响了产汇流条件和水污染物的迁移转化,使水资源系统偏离稳态并导致其承载的社会经济生态系统发展受限。3)评价方法包括综合指数法、函数法、情景分析法和GIS法,由于气候变化不确定性增加,将情景分析法与其他定量方法相结合成为重要趋势。4)水资源脆弱性评价结果被应用于地下水资源保护、水资源适应性管理、政策措施效果评估、社会经济影响定性分析等领域。文中认为,未来应在研究理论体系和指标体系构建上强化多学科协同,进一步突出评价结果在我国重点流域水资源治理和现代城市水管理战略中的实践应用性,加强水资源脆弱性的情景模拟与适应性调控路径研究,注重对水资源脆弱性的社会经济影响的量化分析,强化水资源管理相关政策实施效果的实证研究,为“十四五”期间中国重点流域水资源与水环境综合治理、城市可持续发展提供科学支撑。The vulnerability of water resources is one of the research focuses in the field of sustainable development.Clearing its development trends,important research fields and frontier trends will provide reference for the follow-up theoretical research and practical exploration.Through literature review,we draw the following conclusions:1)The concept of water resources vulnerability is originally based on the starting point perspective,and has experienced the evolution from the inherent vulnerability as an internal attribute of the system to the special vulnerability considering external disturbances,and has recently developed into the net impact of the system being disturbed and after adaptation measures from the end-point perspective.2)Many factors,such as hydrogeology,climate change and urbanization,affect the conditions of runoff generation,concentration and migration,and water pollutants transformation,which make the water resources system deviate from the steady state,thus limit the development of the socio-economic ecosystem it carries.3)The assessment methods include comprehensive index,function,scenario analysis and GIS methods.Due to the increasing uncertainty of climate change,the combination of scenario analysis and other quantitative methods has become an important trend.4)The results of water resources vulnerability assessment have been applied to groundwater resources protection,adaptive management of water resources,effective assessment of policy measures,qualitative analysis of socio-economic impacts and other fields.In the future,we should strengthen multi-disciplinary coordination in the construction of theoretical system research and index system,pay attention to the practical application of evaluation results to water resources governance and water management strategy of modern urbans in China′s key river basins,strengthen the scenario simulation and adaptive regulation path research of water resources vulnerability,and strengthen the quantitative analysis on the socio-economic impact of water r

关 键 词：水资源 脆弱性 气候变化 研究进展 适应 

分 类 号：TV213[水利工程—水文学及水资源]