多情境视角下中国中部六省碳达峰预测  

Research on Carbon Peak Prediction in Six Provinces in Central China from a Multi-situation Perspective

作　　者：马兆良[1,2] 梅加兰 Ma Zhaoliang;Mei Jialan(School of Economics;Research Center of Ecology and Economic Development,Anhui University,Hefei 230601,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽大学经济学院 [2]安徽大学生态与经济发展研究中心,安徽合肥230601

出　　处：《科技管理研究》2022年第13期216-222,共7页Science and Technology Management Research

基　　金：安徽省高校社会科学研究重点项目“碳交易对绿色低碳发展的影响及机制研究”(SK2021A0027)。

摘　　要：在“双碳”目标背景下,以我国中部六省为研究对象,在甄别碳排放主要影响因素基础上,搭建STIRPAT模型对中部六省的碳排放量进行拟合,并设定不同情景参数对碳排放的达峰时间和峰值进行预测。研究结果表明,低碳模式是所有情景模式中最早达峰(2024年)且峰值最低(115734.31万t)的最佳发展模式;若保持经济稳定增长且实现在2030年前碳达峰的目标,可采用高质量发展模式;绿色模式、节能模式、基准模式的达峰时间分别为2025年、2030年和2035年,碳排放峰值分别为116728.11万t、120789.11万t和129701.43万t;粗放模式下,在2040年不能实现碳达峰。基于此,提出中部各省应结合实际情况,明确今后政策落实的侧重方向,早日实现中国整体碳达峰的目标。Under the background of"dual carbon"target,this paper takes the six central provinces as the research object,and on the basis of screening the main influencing factors of carbon emissions,builds STIRPAT model to fit the carbon emissions of the six central provinces,and sets different scenario parameters to predict the peak time and peak value of carbon emissions.The results show that the low-carbon model is the best development model with the earliest peak(2024)and lowest peak(1157.3431 million tons)among all scenarios.A high-quality development model can be adopted if stable economic growth is maintained and the goal of carbon peak by 2030 is achieved.The peak time of green mode,energy saving mode and benchmark mode is 2025,2030 and 2035 respectively,and the peak carbon emission is 1167.2811 million tons,1207.8911million tons and 1297.0143 million tons,respectively.Under the extensive model,carbon peak will not be achieved in 2040.Based on this,it is suggested that provinces should make clear the orientation of future policy implementation based on the actual situation,so as to achieve the goal of carbon peak as soon as possible.

关 键 词：STIRPAT模型 碳排放达峰 情景分析 中部六省 产业结构调整 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]