不确定性感知视角下企业跨国投资决策研究:基于企业年报文本的分析  

Research on Corporate Multinational Investment Decisions from the Perspective of Uncertainty Perception: An Textual Analysis Based on Listed Firms’ Annual Reports

作　　者：何超 李延喜[1] 李翘楚 丁晨晨 He Chao;Li Yanxi;Li Qiaochu;Ding Chenchen

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《世界经济研究》2022年第7期59-75,M0003,共18页World Economy Studies

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(项目编号:18ZDA095);中国博士后科学基金项目(项目编号:2021M700675)。

摘　　要：经济政策不确定性对企业投资决策具有重要影响,然而现有研究在分析这一影响时并没有区分不同企业对经济政策不确定性的感知差异。文章利用文本分析方法,从2007~2018年中国A股上市企业年报文本中提取信息,构建了企业层面的经济政策不确定性感知指标,并探究了其对跨国投资决策的影响。研究发现,当感知到经济政策不确定性升高时,企业进行跨国投资的倾向会增强,并且投资广度、速度以及多元化程度均会提高。进一步分析发现,企业不确定性感知对跨国投资决策的正向影响具有持续性,但对于不同产权性质的企业而言,这种影响并不存在显著差异。此外,研究结论还表明,当企业所在地区制度环境质量、企业融资成本、投资不可逆程度和管理层激励强度较高时,企业不确定性感知对跨国投资决策的正向影响会被削弱,这与制度逃离理论、融资成本理论、实物期权理论和风险厌恶理论的预期相一致。文章的研究为理解宏观经济政策波动对微观企业行为的作用机理提供了新的视角和思路。Economic policy uncertainty( EPU) has an important impact on firms’ investment decisions. However,when examine the impact of EPU,existing studies have not distinguished the difference in the levels of EPU perceived by individual firms. Based on the annual reports of China’s listed firms from 2007 to 2018,this paper constructs a perception index of EPU from the managerial side and examines its impact on firms’ s multinational investment decisions. We find that when the levels of EPU perceived by individual firms increase,firms are more likely to make multinational investment. Specifically,firms would invest in more countries,set up more subsidiaries overseas,and increase the speed of internationalization and the degree of diversification of investment activities. Further analyses show that firm-level perception of EPU not only has a positive impact on firms’ current multinational investment decisions,but also has a promoting impact on their future multinational investment decisions. However,there is no significant difference in this impact among state-owned and non-state-owned enterprises. Moreover,we find multinational investment decisions of financially more constrained firms,firms with higher investment irreversibility and management incentive,and firms located in places with higher quality of the institutional environment,are affected less. The paper provides a new perspective of understanding the impact of EPU on the economic behavior of microenterprises.

关 键 词：经济政策不确定性 企业感知 跨国投资 文本分析 

分 类 号：F832.51[经济管理—金融学] F125