基于系统动力学的碳市场风险模拟与调控研究  

Simulation and regulation of carbon market risk based on system dynamics

作　　者：朱帮助 唐隽捷 江民星 王平[4] ZHU Bangzhu;TANG Junjie;JIANG Minxing;WANG Ping(School of Business,Guangxi University,Nanning 530004,China;Ningbo Branch,China Development Bank,Ningbo 315040,China;Business School,Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;Management School,Jinan University,Guangzhou 510432,China)

机构地区：[1]广西大学工商管理学院,南宁530004 [2]国家开发银行宁波分行,宁波315040 [3]南京信息工程大学商学院,南京210044 [4]暨南大学管理学院,广州510432

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2022年第7期1859-1872,共14页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71771105,71974077,72074120,71903099)。

摘　　要：定量模拟评估碳市场风险,将为制定和完善风险调控措施提供科学支撑,实现碳市场持续稳定发展.本文基于系统动力学构建能刻画碳市场关键风险因素间作用关系的系统动力学模型,多情景模拟评估上海碳市场风险,考察不同调控情景下碳市场风险水平及相关因素的动态变化,科学回答了风险调控中“调控什么”与“如何调控”两个关键科学问题.结果表明:针对成立初期的碳市场,风险偏好弱的市场监管者能更好地抑制风险;相比基准情景,调控情景中能有效降低风险模拟值及其年均变化率的措施作为调控时的首选;风险水平是否超过风险容忍度是调控与否的依据;适当增加配额总量、提高免费配额比例和降低惩罚力度有助于当前碳市场风险调控,兼顾经济与环境效益.最后,本文提出针对性的政策启示,为我国碳市场风险调控措施制定和完善提供决策支持.A quantitative simulation and valuation on carbon market risk provides some scientific insights for the risk regulation policy,which will support an effective and sustainable management of carbon market.In this study,we introduce system dynamics into capturing the relationships among key risk factors of carbon markets.Taking Shanghai carbon market as an example,we use scenario simulations to examine the dynamic changes of risk levels and related factors under different control scenarios,so as to answer the key issues of"what to control"and"how to control"with respect to risk regulation.The results show that the authority with weak risk preference tends to keep lower risk in the early carbon market.It is the best policy spectrum in which both simulation risk and its average annual change rate decrease in the regulatory scenarios comparing to the baseline scenarios.The risk tolerance can be a reference index for activating or deactivating the risk regulation.Appropriately increasing the total quota,increasing the proportion of free quota and reducing the punishment facilitate to regulate the current carbon market risk and keep the economic development and environmental benefits as well.The policy implications are proposed to support for China carbon market risk regulation policy making and improvement.

关 键 词：碳市场 风险管理 调控措施 模拟分析 系统动力学 

分 类 号：F83[经济管理—金融学] X820.4[环境科学与工程—环境工程]