城市复杂公共空间系统韧性建模研究  

Resilience modeling of complex urban public space system

作　　者：许慧 李杨 邓宁辉 杜磊 XU Hui;LI Yang;DENG Ninghui;DU Lei(School of Economics and Management,Chongqing University of Posts and Telecommunications,Chongqing 400065,China;National Engineering Laboratory for Industrial Big-data Application Technology,Chongqing Innovation Center of Industrial Big-Data Co.Ltd.,Chongqing 400707,China;Faculty of Infrastructure Engineering,Dalian University of Technology,Dalian 116024,China;Zhongguancun Smart City Co.,Ltd,Beijing 100080,China;School of Management and Economics,Beijing Institute of Technology,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆邮电大学经济管理学院,重庆400065 [2]重庆工业大数据创新中心有限公司,工业大数据应用技术国家工程实验室,重庆400707 [3]大连理工大学建设工程学部,大连116024 [4]中关村科学城城市大脑股份有限公司,北京100080 [5]北京理工大学管理与经济学院,北京100081

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2022年第7期1964-1978,共15页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：重庆市自然科学基金面上项目(cstc2021jcyj-msxmX0951);重庆市教育委员会人文社会科学研究重点项目(21SK GH061);重庆市教委科学技术研究计划项目(KJQN202000631);中国博士后科学基金(2021M700617)。

摘　　要：为了分析突发事件的破坏作用以及城市复杂公共空间系统的功能水平变化,引入“韧性”来表征系统遭受破坏后的吸收、适应和恢复能力.从突发事件发生的全过程视角出发,首先定义了城市复杂公共空间系统韧性建模函数,包括:系统结构组成、系统韧性函数、突发事件破坏函数和系统功能恢复函数;然后以重庆某轨道交通站为例构建城市复杂公共空间系统韧性模型,包括:虚拟系统模型、韧性函数模型、突发事件模型和恢复函数模型;在5种不同等级洪水灾害情景下,采用蒙特卡罗(Monte Carlo)方法对城市复杂公共空间系统韧性进行模拟计算,得出不同等级洪水灾害情景下城市复杂公共空间各子系统功能水平变化情况以及系统韧性水平分布规律.模拟结果表明:3级及以下的洪水灾害对该轨道交通站各子系统功能会造成轻微损害,但其能快速恢复至正常运行状态,该轨道交通站系统表现出较强的韧性水平;3级以上洪水灾害对其破坏程度较为严重,各子系统恢复时间较长,系统的韧性水平较低.该模型可为城市复杂公共空间系统韧性研究提供支持,对制定灾害预防措施和城市复杂公共空间系统韧性提升策略提供一定参考.To analyze the destructive effects of emergencies and changes of complex urban public space(CUPS)system function,resilience was introduced to measure absorbability,adaptability and restorability of the system after a disaster.In views of the whole process of emergency,this paper firstly defined the resilience modeling functions of CUPS system from four aspects,including system structural composition,system resilience function,emergency destruction function,and system recovery function.A rail transit station in Chongqing was used for a case study to construct the resilience model of CUPS system,which contains a virtual system model,a resilience model,a disaster model,and a recovery model.The resilience of CUPS system was simulated by the Monte Carlo Method under five different flood scenarios.The changes of CUPS subsystem function and the distribution of the resilience level were derived.The simulation result showed that floods of levels 1,2,and 3 cause slight damages to the function of each subsystem,and the rail transit station could quickly recover to the normal operation condition and performs strong resilience.When the flood degree over level 3,serious impacts on the function level of each subsystem would be caused,which lead to a long recovery process,and the resilience level of the rail transit station is relatively low.The model could provide supports for resilience research of CUPS system and be references for developing disaster prevention measures and formulating resilience promotion strategies.

关 键 词：城市复杂公共空间系统 韧性 建模 灾害模拟 蒙特卡罗 

分 类 号：TU984.191[建筑科学—城市规划与设计]