粤港澳大湾区城市洪涝问题及其分析  

Urban flood issues and analysis in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

作　　者：张之琳 邱静[1,2,3] 程涛 黄本胜 冯紫荧[1,2,3] ZHANG Zhilin;QIU Jing;CHENG Tao;HUANG Bensheng;FENG Ziying(Guangdong Research Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower,Guangzhou 510635,China;Guangdong Water Security Collaborative Innovation Center,Guangzhou 510635,China;Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai),Zhuhai 519000,China)

机构地区：[1]广东省水利水电科学研究院,广东广州510635 [2]广东省水安全科技协同创新中心,广东广州510635 [3]南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室(珠海),广东珠海519000

出　　处：《水利学报》2022年第7期823-832,共10页Journal of Hydraulic Engineering

基　　金：广东省水利科技创新项目(2021-01);广东省科技计划项目(2020B1212030005);广东省自然科学基金项目(2021A1515012077,2022A1515010898)。

摘　　要：近年来,粤港澳大湾区城市洪涝问题日趋严峻。本文梳理了大湾区典型城市洪涝事件,归纳了洪涝特征并分析了洪涝问题的主要驱动要素。结果表明,近100多年,大湾区年降雨量、降雨日平均雨量、暴雨日数及暴雨日降雨量占全年比例都波动增加,而降雨日数波动减少,降雨呈现增多且趋于集中的态势。大湾区降雨时空分布不均,近10年广州、东莞、惠州汛期降雨量占全年雨量的81%,广州龙舟水期间降雨量占全年约22%。虽然大湾区城市群呈现热岛效应,气温与城镇化率呈正相关,且100多年来各城市温度上升并与降雨量呈正相关;但受地理位置影响,各城市降雨量与其城镇化率的关系并不明显,而更下游的沿海城市面临更多的锋面雨和台风雨影响。近10年给大湾区带来暴雨以上降雨的台风有47场,发生在6—10月,其中恰逢天文大潮的有21场、有26场在大湾区以西登陆。近40年珠江口沿海海平面上升速率3.5 mm/a,高于全国平均水平,海平面的持续上升将使大湾区面临严重洪涝风险。对强降雨、台风暴潮、海平面变化等要素开展分析可为大湾区防灾减灾工作提供重要参考。Urban flooding in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay area has become increasingly serious in recent years.This paper combed the typical flood events in the Greater Bay Area,summarized the characteristics of flooding,and analyzed the main driving factors.The results show that for more than 100 years,the annual precipitation,the average daily rainfall,and the number of rainstorm days show an upward trend,while the rainfall day has decreased,which indicates that rainfall is increasing and tends to concentrate.The temporal and spatial distribution of rainfall is uneven.In recent ten years,the rainfall in the flood season in Guangzhou,Dongguan,and Huizhou accounts for 81%of the annual rainfall,and the rainfall during the dragon-boat rain in Guangzhou accounts for about 22%of the annual value.Besides,although the urban agglomeration in the Greater Bay Area presents a heat island effect,and the temperature in each city has increased and is positively correlated with rainfall;the relationship between rainfall and urbanization rate in each city is not obvious due to the influence of geographical location,while the coastal cities in the lower reaches are facing more frontal rain and typhoon rain.In the past decade,47 typhoons brought heavy rain or more to the Greater Bay Area,occurring from June to October,among which 21 coincided with the astronomical tide and 26 landed in the west of the Greater Bay Area.In addition,the rate of sea level rise along the Pearl River Estuary in the past 40 years was 3.5 mm/a,higher than the national average,and the rise of sea level in the future may bring new risks to the Greater Bay Area.The analysis of heavy rainfall,typhoon surge,and sea level change can provide an important reference for disaster prevention in this area.

关 键 词：粤港澳大湾区 城市洪涝 极端降雨 台风暴潮 海平面上升 气候变化 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源]